Yep. Before the escalator ride
If the goal of the April 5 Hands-Off protests was to convince the Trump administration to drop some of its abrupt changes to the functioning of the United States, the protests clearly failed.
But I’m sure most readers of this article know that the political tool known as “peaceful protest” does not work this way. Protests are more about changing the political math than political minds. When the math is changed, then minds can be changed.
From articles I have read, Hands-Off brought about four million Americans to the streets to voice their displeasure. Let’s just call it 1% of the American population. If the Trump administration is politically astute, it should not cave in one inch to these protests. This 1% is never going to vote Republican!
Again, assuming the Republicans are politically astute, they should realize another 4% would have liked to have attended the protests but had reasonable reasons not to. So that means 5% of Americans are supporting the protesters. Even with this 5%, the Republicans should not give one inch to the movement. I do not see any political gain for them.
Because 30% of Americans are OK with their democracy becoming an oligarchy. This was confirmed four years ago, the day American democracy died.
My political math says 100% — 5% — 30% = 65%. Sixty-five percent of Americans are ambivalent to the change from a quasi-democracy to an oligarchy. If you don’t agree with my math, then you should explain why a lot more people did not show up on April 5.
Don’t get me wrong. I understand that the Hands-Off movement should be regarded as a starting point. It has the possibility of swaying many of the 65% to join the protest.
If Hands-Off is successful, then the natural outcome is for Democrats to assume political control in the United States. Maybe a barricade control in 2026 with mid-term elections. Maybe full control in 2028.
Hold that thought!
The Republican Plan
From what I can see on my computer and TV screens in Canada, the Republicans have a concrete plan. There was no plan in the first Trump administration. There was no plan in the Biden administration.
Today’s plan is to apply shock-and-awe to American society — and the rest of the world. Throw so much stuff out there that the opposition has no time to organize and oppose effectively. This plan has already been played out in many small places in the world since 1973. Please read about The Shock Doctrine. This plan is now being applied to the USA.
Previously, the shock-and-awe plan was to effect neoliberal economic policies. I think this American shock-and-awe is going beyond neoliberalism.
As we know, Mr. Trump has an amazing ability to bend rules in his favor. When he doesn’t get his way, he keeps bulldozing until he does. Somehow he gets away with stuff no other president ever could have gotten away with.
The deck has been stacked. Mr. Trump has the Supreme Court on his side. This body could rule that only 5% of Americans are allowed to vote because that is how the original constitution was set up. A plausible enough interpretation to actually be implemented. This would be a politically acceptable enough action for the 30% — even if they lose their right to vote. And, unfortunately, some of that 30% are ready to do the “patriot work” to set their country right in unofficial ways. Anyone who says these thoughts are impossible is naïve. Mr. Trump has a lot of tools at his disposal.
A few months ago, I had a discussion with a political writer on Medium. She said that the military generals would obey the constitution, not the president. I told her that Mr. Trump will find generals more amenable to his plans. Another political writer told me that the elected Republicans will never allow Mr. Trump to suspend the Constitution. I told him that Republicans are choosing to be on the inside of a new political order.
I have mentioned that martial law is likely, leaders of the political left will be disappeared, and protesters will be killed. This will be a necessary price to pay to get the Trump administration to back down. No one likes this kind of talk. The formal and informal rules of American democracy are breaking down fast, despite the wishful thinking of many well-meaning Americans of the political left.
At the speed that the Republicans are moving, the Project 2025 takeover could be complete by November 2026 — meaning the 2026 elections will still follow the new constitution but be meaningless.
Back to protests & Democrats
Or maybe there is another outcome. Despite billing himself as a tough negotiator, Mr. Trump has blinked and backed down on a few of his stances. It is plausible that if at least 15% of Americans participate in future protests by the end of the summer, he just might forget about his takeover plans. By my math, the USA will have another 3.2 years of a lame duck, inept administration. While the USA will not move forward in these times, Americans can elect a Democratic administration in 2028. Hooray! Dancing in the streets there will be!
But the generational history of the Democratic Party is not overflowing with success. Mr. Clinton could not or would not undo Reaganomics to keep the middle class in place. Mr. Obama ran into corporate interests to hamper his vision. Mr. Biden, with his immense political experience, failed in his one main job to reduce the number of people voting for the Republican Party. Whether by a shortage of political courage or by too great of systemic obstacles, Democrats have failed the USA. We should assume the Democrats will continue to fail because history says they will fail.
Yet many Medium people believe the Democratic Party is somehow going to rise above its ashes in 2028. So there is no need in building the new democracy I am suggesting that they build. Should we wait for them to say in 2031: “Hey, that Dave fellow from Canada was right. We really need a new democracy.” That will be six wasted years.
Let me say this in different words: If 1% of Americans do not want to build this new democracy, then the best solution is 3.2 years of a lame-duck inept rule followed by another four years of rule by a political party who campaigns on “We are not the Republicans.”
THAT IS THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR.
“So when,” I must ask, “do 1% of Americans take on this task of building a new democracy?”
Conclusion
The year 2015 is not where we need to be. That year had the conditions that led to 2016, which then led us to today. If we go back to 2015, we will do our last decade all over again.
Let’s build something much better than what we had in 2015!
Published on Medium & Substack 2025
TDG & the Right to Peaceful Protest
