Before I get into my rant, I will give a brief summary of a protest that actually worked.
Buoyed by the success of the Solidarity movement in Poland, the citizens of 1989 Czechoslovakia took to the streets to demand their change of government. They protested for 11 straight days, in cold November. About 15% of the population attended these protests in the final days.
The Communist Party of Czechoslovakia realized that it had no legitimacy to govern anymore. It negotiated with the leaders of its opposition (Charter 77 and Civic Forum) to effect the transition from one-party to multi-party rule. In June 1990, Czechoslovakia had its first democratic election since 1949.
Now that is how protests should work, right?
Is the USA really protesting?
Hands Off: April 5
No Kings: June 14
I count 10 weeks between the two mass protests, each consisting of 1–2% of the population. That’s 70 days. The communists would still be running Czechoslovakia if that had been the commitment of the Czech and Slovak people in 1989.
Did you notice that a few days after No Kings, the Trump administration announced it is going to sell off thousands of acres of federal lands to the highest bidder? Yessiree, that’s a good sign of a cowering government scared of the people who came out to protest.
Maybe the goal of the protests is to give some Americans the opportunity to say, “Well, I tried.”
The role of social psychologists
I took an introductory course in “social psychology.” Basically, this marriage of psychology to sociology is about how individuals behave in a large group. Maybe “groupthink” is a better term. I think it was this course when I understood that the values we hold usually come from outside of ourselves. The people around us have more influence on us than we realize.
In my political days, I did not meet any professional social psychologists. But if there were any, they would have been in higher backrooms than the backrooms I was playing in.
As well, social psychology can be played by amateurs, which I would consider myself as one. Social psychology is a field many of us can pick up on with some reading, thinking, and life experience. Anyone who has had to sell something or organize an event is a bit of a social psychologist.
There are amateur and/or professional social psychologists in the political back rooms. They are trying to understand the various demographics that constitute our politics — and how to manipulate them.
For example, many Medium writers believe their articles — supplemented by similar writers — will manipulate the Democratic Party to govern more for society rather than for its high-ranking members. I do not believe this strategy will work as the Democratic Party is beset by bigger forces than whatever amateur social psychologists outside the Party can ever muster.
The back rooms of the political left
When I look at the 70-day delay between protests, I have to wonder why the social psychologists in the backrooms are leading in this way. Here are my speculations:
Maybe their plan is to slowly build up this protest movement such that it becomes a serious force in October. Maybe 10% of Americans will be on the streets by October.
Maybe the social psychologists are predicting the Trump administration will fall on its own sword a little more between now and then, which will help the protest movement later.
The social psychologists seem to fear violence in these protests. So far, the protest leaders have been successful in getting protesters to disperse after three hours of protesting. I would like to know the social psychology techniques for this part of the protest.
Maybe the social psychologists believe violence at protests could lead to martial law. This will lead to no elections in November 2026, which means the Republican Party goes full oligarchy on the USA.
Maybe the professional social psychologists have determined that the collective will to challenge and thwart the oligarchy is not there. Protests will wither out quickly if they are weekly occurrences. And this withering would signal to the Republicans that they do have a green light to bring in their oligarchy, which then justifies martial law.
Maybe with the longer intervals between protests, the appearance of serious opposition is sustained, causing the Republicans to be cautious. This delay will allow less committed protesters to join the movement later. But if there is martial law sooner, they won’t join at all. Are the social psychologists thinking along these lines?
There is a lot of criticism toward the high-ranking Democrats for not doing enough to challenge and thwart the rise of the Republican oligarchy. But having their subdued voice out there is better than a loud voice in prison. If some high-ranking Democrats go to prison, that will signal the oligarchy is truly here. Protesting could become dangerous; most of us will keep our heads low.
Are you seeing the Catch-22 here? Too much opposition leads to early martial law. Too little opposition leads to apathy. The social psychologists of the political left are managing a balance, waiting for the right time and conditions to muster up a more serious opposition.
The backrooms of the political right
Up until recently, I was uncertain of the path the Republicans would take. Would they be satisfied with rigged elections that give them 60% of the seats, giving the current president all the legal political power? Or would they go full-blown oligarchy? After the “Big Beautiful Bill” passed, I am leaning toward the oligarchy.
I believe the social psychologists working for the Republican party had determined that most of the poor Republicans would still support the party even though these Republicans would lose 20 years of lifespan because they cannot pay for their own health care. The high-ranking Republicans really had nothing to lose in this bill, which is now law.
We could say the Republicans did not attack Hands Off and No Kings protests because these protests were easy to ignore. But maybe there is more to the social psychology of this situation. If the Republicans had attacked on June 14, it would have needed to be a decisive attack. Right now, the Republicans do not have the “army” to create that decisive and, if necessary, sustained attack. And an attack from most parts of the country.
Maybe the social psychologists have determined that the military and current police forces would not co-operate fully with such a massive attack.
But a new army is being built. A year ago, ICE was a mostly impotent police organization. Arrests per police officer were probably the lowest of all American police forces. The USA so needed illegal immigrants for its economy to function.
But now, ICE has a much greener light to go after supposed illegal immigrants. This police work is attractive to recruits with a certain psyche. These recruits are earning much more than whatever they would ever earn in the free market. And they get to beat up “the other.”
So ICE is getting bigger. ICE is gaining experience. The social psychologists are organizing ICE into a more effective agency, willing to take orders from the president.
It is only a matter of time before ICE goes after other groups, like protesters.
But not now. ICE is not ready. Like the political left, the future oligarchy also needs the right timing.
What to do? What to do? What to do?
So we have the political left being cautious, not forcing an early oligarchy. And the political right is not ready to enforce that oligarchy. Both sides are biding their appropriate time, moving their chess pieces to find their own checkmate.
Like the coaching staff of two football teams trying to outsmart each other, social psychologists from both sides are working overtime, plotting and planning and arguing over their next moves. Do not assume anything you see, hear, or feel is political is spontaneous. Everything is orchestrated for a certain conclusion.
One side is going to win. The other side is going to lose.
If you are reading this article, you are not a significant player in how this game is going to be played out. We are, at best, only tools of someone else’s grand plan.
If the political right wins this war, the USA will descend into an oligarchy. This will not be good for some Americans. Many other Americans will see a serious loss of prosperity and opportunity. The USA will fully move into the Orwell Ratio. Most of us in the 85% will comply with this new order.
In this plausible outcome, it is possible to build a new democracy. The Americans who take on this task will mostly be under the radar because the oligarchy will be fighting other Americans who are much more aggressive in their opposition. Eventually, the oligarchy will fail. Hopefully, this new democracy will be ready to take over at that time.
If the political left wins the war, the Democratic Party will be the vehicle to assume the role of government. But history suggests this party will govern more for itself than for its society. With a Democratic do-little directive and the political right remaining as a strong political force, the Democrats will democratically fail again. So the USA would get to play the same political game it has been playing for the last 10 years — again.
Let me say this in different words. If you believe the Democratic Party is the best chance the USA has to preserve democracy in the short term, then why did it create the conditions that gave rise to Donald Trump in the first place? Should we really believe this party can plan anything?
It is time for you to believe in yourself. Our new democracy will cost you 10 hours a month!
Here are the six steps for a kinder, wiser democracy.
You are being manipulated
Most readers of this article can easily see how MAGA is being played by the high-ranking Republicans. MAGA has bought into the idea that it will be the favored demographic in the new USA. From what I can see, the high-ranking Republicans are going to cast MAGA aside when ICE is ready. While I believe this will contribute to the Republican oligarchy falling sooner rather than later, the social psychologists of the Republican Party think differently, maybe because they have studied other full working oligarchies. They will not make the same mistakes.
MAGA is being manipulated, but you are not. How naïve.
If you are anticipating the announcement of the next mass protest, you too, are being played. THEY will decide when and how you protest. Maybe they know what they are doing. Maybe not. Maybe they will be outsmarted.
THEIR end game is to keep high-ranking Democrats and their big donors in THEIR high positions in society. Think of six-figure incomes, interesting occupations, and the status, influence, and power THEY have and you don’t.
If you are truly an independent thinker, you would investigate Tiered Democratic Governance — and decide for yourself.
Remember, many of our values come from outside of us.
Published on Medium 2025
Let's Protest our Way Back to 2015
