Since November 2023, I have been predicting a Democrat win. It could have been a narrow win. It could have been an upset. These predictions came from my analysis of the soft-support American voters. Here is my article a few days before the election:
The Presidential Polls are Wrong
I was wrong!
I’m not sure why I was wrong. For sure, Medium and Mastodon have many pundits explaining the loss. To me, Colby Hess has the best explanation.
My apologies: If you are not a Medium member, this link probably won't work for you.
Basically, Colby’s explanation is about how rhetoric from the Democratic campaign was too unbelievable. For me, this explanation was unsatisfactory for politicians have been known to use lots of rhetoric to win elections. Rather, I relied on the principle of “choosing the lesser of two evils.” And this principle failed. The candidate “Did Not Vote” won the election. So nothing is really resonating with me.
I thought Ms. Harris was a capable campaigner. Her message was in line with what many of her supporters wanted to hear. Her message was one of several good ways to get votes.
Having said that, I believe a Harris victory still would not have been able to take the USA to where it really needs to go. There are systemic forces in American democracy that prevent this kind of societal movement. Most likely, the USA would have gone through another Trump-like cycle in 2028 if Ms. Harris had won.
But I’ve been wrong before.
Another prediction?
Throughout my writings on Medium, I have been very clear to my few loyal followers:
A Republican win might convince 1% of Americans to start building a new democracy. A Democrat win would delay this project by a decade.
And a Republican win is where we are.
I’m going to capitalize on the trauma of the political center and political left. Maybe some of them can finally see how dysfunctional western democracy really is, especially the American version. Maybe some of them are finally ready to give my idea a serious investigation.
So most of my new Medium writings will be about Tiered Democratic Governance (TDG). These stories will be short. With shorter works, I should be able to publish more frequently.
And these articles will be placed in this pub, Tiered Democratic Governance. Stay tuned.
Published on Medium 2024
The Offshore Company Money Machine
All Hail the Republican Oligarchy
Addendum
Colby's explanation failed. It seems all the rhetoric from the Democratic campaign has come true.
And my new Medium strategy failed. I wrote a TDG article almost every day from November 14, 2024 to January 20, 2025. The result: my average earnings per article went from $1.50 to $0.25. Medium readers were not appreciative of having the opportunity to learn a new way. On January 20, I went back to two articles per week. I joined Substack and started recycling TDG articles there.
