Making political predictions is risky. Politics has its own mind. No one can say for sure what will happen next. Yet many of us try as if we know the future.
This essay will summarize some of my previous predictions of American politics over the past 10 years. From these predictions, you can assess my skills in political fortune telling.
Then this essay gives my predictions for 2026.
Prediction #1: July 2016. Donald Trump could be president
I was expecting Donald Trump to finish a respectable fourth place in the Republican primary. Then drop out and get back to business and his reality TV show. But as the summer wore on, he was in first place. Something unusual was happening in American politics. I saw he could be the next president when most other pundits were saying it would be impossible for the buffoon to win.
I was right!
Just to make sure every reader understands my position, I never said he would be a good president. Unlike most aspiring politicians, his private life was too well known. He showed serious character flaws for this job.
Prediction #2: November 2016. The world is ready for new ideas
The election of Donald Trump to the presidency is a sign of a broken democracy.
“Now,” I thought, “the world would be ready for my new democracy.”
So I blew the dust off my life project “Tiered Democratic Governance (TDG).” I still had this new democracy on the internet, but I had done little with it in the previous six years. It was time to re-introduce this idea.
This time, I wanted to put the TDG into an ebook format. So I thought I should do a reread, just to check for typos my editor and I missed in 2009. When I reread this book, I saw enough things to change to call it my fourth edition.
Revisions and ebooks done, I went on a half dozen internet forums to promote the TDG. For two years, I was interacting with various internet forums: DebatePolitics, Facebook, Writerbeat, G+, and a couple more whose names escape me. I was not making much headway.
I was wrong. The election of Donald Trump did not make the world ready for new ideas.
Prediction #3: April 2019. Medium would be the forum
My first forays into Medium suggested that its readers were of a higher intellect, civility, and open-mindedness than those other internet forums. These readers would be willing to look at a new democracy.
I was wrong.
Predictions #4 & #5: Summer 2020, The Democratic 2020 Primary
From my side of the TV screen, I saw Joe Biden as someone moving into old age. Politics, as we know it today, is not for someone with lower energy and cognition. These ailments would affect his presidency.
I was right.
As well, I predicted the controversies surrounding his son would become an election issue.
I was wrong.
Prediction #6: June 2020. The Bible Photo
To me, the photo op with Mr. Trump clumsily holding a Bible in front of a church was a sign of a losing politician. Don’t get me wrong: it was not going to be a big shift in his public opinion. But I thought maybe five million American Christians would see how disrespectful this photo was to Christianity. They could be convinced not to vote in November 2020. This small shift would cause Mr. Trump’s loss.
Mr. Trump did lose that election. But his votes went from 62m in 2016 to 74m in 2020. The photo did not cause any loss of support.
I was wrong.
Prediction #7: November 2021. The Virginian Gubernatorial Election
After January 6, 2021 riots, it was obvious that the Republican Party had a serious oligarchic intention.
The Virginia Republicans did attain a narrow win. But, to me, the more important point was that 30% of Virginians voted for a party that wanted to go oligarchy. Virginia’s 30% could be applied across the country. This 30% wanted an oligarchy. And 30% is big enough to affect this kind of social/political change.
In essence, the Virginia election proved that USA had lost its ability to self-correct, politically speaking.
I was right.
The Day American Democracy Died
Prediction #8 & #9: Summer 2024. The Harris Candidacy
In 2020, 78m Americans chose not to cast a ballot. Given the stakes of the 2024 election, I thought at least 10% of them would cast a ballot in 2024, based on the theory of voting for the least evil. And I thought Ms. Harris ran a reasonable campaign. This election should have led to a narrow Democratic win. I even suggested a “decisively decisive” win was possible.
In 2024, 86m Americans chose not to cast a ballot.
I was wrong.
I had underestimated the ineffectiveness of the Biden administration. Only when I read the book “Fight” did I come to this realization.
Ms. Harris was too tied to that presidency. That’s why the Democrats lost 6m votes in 2024.
Had Ms. Harris won, she would have faced at least 100 Waco-type uprisings. The USA had gone too far down the path for “the new American patriots to accept another rigged election.”
It is unknown whether I would have been right or wrong about the 100 Wacos.
I did not predict whether the Harris administration would have handled these Wacos wisely. This would be a difficult situation for the best of presidents.
Prediction #10: November 2024. The Rise of the TDG
“With the second election of Donald Trump,” I thought, “Now a few Americans would take my ideas about building a new democracy more seriously.”
So I changed my Medium strategy. I went from indirect teaching about the TDG to a more direct style. I published one “direct” article per day for two-and-a-half months.
I lost 75% of my traction, almost immediately. Of the remaining 25%, no one got back to me about learning more about the TDG.
Medium writers often muse how they do not understand why some articles work better than others. There seems to be no consistent formula. In this case, it was quite clear that Medium readers did not want to hear about any new democracy.
I was wrong.
I went back to my indirect TDG strategy. My usual traction (views and reads) eventually returned by September.
Prediction #11. The Change in Trump Tone
I predicted that Trump 2.0 would be more aggressive than Trump 1.0 in his oligarchic tendencies. Project 2025 was in his back pocket.
I was right. But many other pundits were making this prediction. So I really didn’t stand out here.
Prediction #12: McCarthyism
American voter lists segregate voters into political affiliation. The three main categories are Democrat, Republican, and Independent. This database is readily available.
To keep the MAGA base intact, I thought this list could be used to reward registered Republicans. For example, if an American citizen wants to apply for social security, a Republican would get that assistance easily, but a Democrat or Independent should expect delays. There are many ways this database could have been used in this manner.
McCarthyism and Trumpism
I was wrong. MAGA is getting no special privileges. Which is telling us something.
Predictions for 2026
Well, my prior political predictions are less than stellar. I should almost quit trying to predict anything.
For whatever reason, I’m predicting again.
I see Trump’s health and polling as moot points. His passing from this world or a 25th Amendment will not change the trajectory of this political movement. JD Vance has the political skills to finish the job; he is likely better than Trump 2.0 to put a plan together and carry it out. True it is that Vance might be fired soon. If so, the Republican Party will find another capable leader to be the new VP. The 30% Americans who want this oligarchy will “force” whoever is leading the Republicans into that direction. The people at the top are really not that important anymore.
Medium has lots of happy discussion about the MAGA base fracturing. Trump’s poll numbers are down. But until they get below 30%, I have to assume the MAGA base is more or less intact. It’s more likely traditional non-voters expressing their displeasure of Trump 2.0 to the pollsters. And recent “small” elections say these eligible voters are coming out to vote. If this continues, the Democrats would regain the House and Senate in November, probably with a bigger majority than usual.
Can the Republicans afford this outcome?
A Democratic-led Congress will be more effective in stalling the oligarchy; the Republicans could no longer claim due process was followed. Their oligarchic intention would be more overt. And a D-led Congress just might convince more non-voters to vote next time. The Republicans could be soundly turfed out in 2028.
This will then result in retribution of high-ranking Republicans going to prison and/or losing their newly acquired fortunes. No, the Republicans cannot afford to stand for the November 2026 elections.
The Republicans need to make the grab for the oligarchic brass ring for before November 2026 because that opportunity might not be there after the election.
So, I am predicting some kind of constitutional crisis to justify suspending elections before November 2026.
Will the Republicans get away with this?
I will remind readers that 30% of Americans want this oligarchy. So any way the Republicans frame this constitutional crisis will be good enough for the 30%.
The successful implantation of this oligarchy depends on the psyche of the police forces and military. I don’t think the Republicans have this part of their plan in place yet.
Right now, the American Navy is fighting a war with Venezuelan fishing boats, and I suspect the Trump 2.0 Administration is figuring out ways to create a loyal military: lessons and examples which can be applied elsewhere. There is a lot of testing of wills happening behind these scenes, which the media will not be reporting on.
For those readers who believe that police and military officers swore an oath to the American constitution is going to prevail, I say this is naïve thinking. These government employees are earning above average salaries, and they have seen other civil servants lose their high-paying jobs. The police and high-ranking military know their big paychecks are gone if they disobey orders and are fired.
And like the Aesop fox who could not get the Aesop grapes, they will say: “The Republicans told everyone about their intent to go oligarchy. They showed everyone about their intent to go oligarchy. They still won the 2024 election with 77 million votes. So their orders must be constitutional.”
I’m not making any call whether the Republicans can find the loyalty they are looking for. If they already had this loyalty, the USA would be in an oligarchy by now.
So the Republicans have two choices. First, they can wait for the police forces to come onside. But this wait risks going past the election of November 2026. That election will likely move the political pendulum to sending high-ranking Republicans to prison. Or the Republicans can just call in the oligarchy and hope the police forces are somehow forced to comply. If the compliance is there, high-ranking Republicans do not go to prison. What’s the logical choice, if Republicans not going to prison is the preferred outcome?
Be thankful if my prediction of the brass ring does not come true. But I think most readers will know it is plausible. Highly plausible.
Two more predictions
If the USA goes to a Republican oligarchy, it will be short-lived.
The communists of Czechoslovakia knew they could not hold their country together with just fear and bribes. So they catered, somewhat, to the aspirations of average citizens. With these social relief valves, the communists were allowed to govern for 40 years.
I don’t see any social relief valves in the Republican vision of the new USA. They will be pulled off the stage within a decade, making the communists look like geniuses in governance.
If the oligarchy is thwarted, the Democrats will have a monopoly of power for at least two election cycles. The Democrats will keep the Republicans around as a weak foil. The Democrats will not allow or encourage competitors to itself or the Republican Party.
Besides, the Democrats will have a lot to do. As well as running the USA, the retributions (rightful as they are) take time, resources, and attention from other good actions needed to build a better society where people won’t vote for someone like Donald Trump.
And don’t forget about the influence of the donor class.
Conclusion
The Republicans will TRY to go oligarchy before November 2026.
If the Democrats thwart the oligarchic plan, they will not govern wisely enough to prevent another MAGA-like rise.
The first prediction is not “in outer space.” Many other pundits are thinking similarly. I am not unique.
The second prediction is unique. From my readings on Medium, many political pundits still believe the Democratic Party will reform itself. By 2030, maybe these pundits will finally figure out this is not possible. But five years will have been lost.
The sooner we start building a new democracy, the sooner it will be built.
Published on Medium 2025
