For about a year, I have been seeing political forces shaping up to give a decisive victory to the Democrats in the presidential race. Even with Joe Biden and his cognitive decline.
I have also been seeing a “decisively decisive” victory, with Ms. Harris getting at least a 100-point difference in the Electoral College count. A few red states might be turning blue.
I should have written the above title a couple of weeks ago. But the cosmic forces that inspire me to write Medium articles did not cast me in this direction. Until now. Not sure why “now.”
But I sure have danced around errant polling in recent articles and responses. In my “Further Reading” section, I have some of my articles that are politically obtuse, relevant to the mainstream media and most political writers on Medium.
Madison Square Gardens
I see the debacle of Madison Square Gardens causing a vote shift of about 500,000 votes. While there might be a few voters switching from R to D, the more important shifts are the 250,000 soft R supporters who will not vote and the 250,000 soft D voters who are finally motivated to vote. And that is a 500,000 vote difference! That difference is what Madison Square Gardens is giving to this election.
While many pundits might see the Madison Square Gardens as the “turning point,” I am seeing the final nail in the coffin. The Republican coffin lid was put on last June when Mr. Biden stepped down — and Ms. Harris rose to the challenge.
You see, I base my political predictions on the movement of the soft support. And my analyses have not been popular. For sure, Medium readers have not been impressed by my insights. And I can’t blame them: the mainstream media just don’t like mentioning the importance of soft support.
Here are two of my 2021 articles explaining soft support:
Negative Political Advertising
Recapping my political thinking
Madison Square Gardens was only a continuance of Republican rhetoric. I believe, deep down inside, the Republicans know they cannot legitimately win this election. The only reason for the rhetoric is to incite violence after November 5.
Since 2016, the MAGA and Republican base have been seeing the opportunity where 30% of Americans could run the country to the exclusion of the other 70%. That’s why they stayed on this train for so long. It’s all about the power-gathering instinct that most of us have.
In 2016, all of us (including Mr. Trump) expected Mr. Trump to earn a respectable fourth-place finish at the Republican primary. When he became the front-runner, that’s when I realized this bombastic, unstatesmanlike character could actually be the president. Other than some delusional fans, no one else was making this call.
My call was based on the media coverage. They could not wait to report on the next outlandish statement or quasi-scandal. The more sensible candidates, like John Kasich and Jeb Bush, had only crumbs to communicate their vision to Republicans and the rest of America. In my mind, the media and DNC were doing their best to interfere in this internal Republican election and get Mr. Trump elected. So November 8, 2016 was setting up to be an easy Democrat win.
Hold that thought about the interference.
The media is profit-driven. It needs to attract readers, TV remote clickers, and internet screens. It needs to promote the race as close as close can be. The 50/50 polling results are feeding this frenzy. Fewer eyes on sports and movies and more eyes on politics are good bottom lines in media outlets.
So any polling that is showing a 53/47 split is immediately discarded as “fake news.” If a polling company wants attention as a viable polling company, it has to go with the flow.
OK, you might be calling me paranoid. But let me take this polling conundrum one step further.
In June, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were, according to the polls, in a 50/50 race. Then Mr. Biden had a bad debate. Prominent Democrats turned on him, blaming him for the 50/50 polling — and putting the USA in a dangerous political situation.
The election cycle was too far gone to hold a proper primary. Then, by some back-room political machination we may never fully understand, Ms. Harris ended up as the Democratic candidate. Despite the machination and whatever flaws her critics on the left and on the right like to point out, she has been a credible candidate for the job. Another candidate could be marginally better but could also be worse.
Almost immediately after her coronation, more donations found their way to Democrat coffers. More average Americans were signing up to help in the Democrat campaign. My Mastodon feed had stories of Democrat lawyers fighting election day battles in the court rooms long before election day. Lots of extra political energy was found in the transition from Biden to Harris.
So, then, can you explain to me why have the polls remained at 50/50? No Democrat upsurge at all? Strange, is it not?
The real reason for the 50/50 polls
Personally I don’t believe polls are up to their stated accuracy of 2%. I think ±10% is more likely.
So why won’t the polls get the 2024 presidential election right?
Let me explain why the polls have been manipulated to ensure a Democrat victory.
If the polls were reporting a 55/45 split, the motivation of the soft support would be changed. Remember, soft supporters do not think like political junkies.
Imagine you are a soft-D supporter. Rightly or wrongly, you have other things on your mind than politics. If the polls are saying the Democrats are going to win handily, do you really have to vote? One vote won’t make that much difference! Right? You can easily rationalize not making the trip to the polls.
If enough of you are thinking this way, then the election does become a 50/50 race. The coin could flip to Mr. Trump again.
Yes, the published polls were kept at 50/50 to keep the soft D support motivated to vote.
And to keep the Democratic ground teams working on finding that soft support.
And to keep money flowing into Democratic coffers.
And to keep Green Party supporters from voting Green.
If the media could interfere in the 2016 Republican primary, could it also not interfere in this way? Just to help the Democrats win?
Remember some of these media outlets would be forced to close their doors with a second Trump presidency. Self-preservation is in the air.
Everyone’s so happy with 50/50
The political junkies get their soap opera.
The media keeps advertising revenue rolling in.
The Democrats keep their soft support motivated.
Ironically, the errant 50/50 polls are good for the Republican Party as well. They give the impression that the Republicans can legitimately win the election, which is unlikely. But if November 5 has a different result than 50/50, that result will be regarded as election fraud and provide fuel to justify their Plan B.
Other than me, no one is publicly challenging the validity of the presidential polls.
November 5 and beyond
A 53/47 split should ensure a Harris victory. I would consider this as the lowest possible outcome.
But I am uncertain whether the Harris administration can handle the post-November 5 violence wisely. Having five Waco-like situations at the same time is uncharted territory, even for the best of political players.
And I am still giving a 50% chance of a 65/35 split. With this split, many of the possible insurrectionists will realize they don’t have the support of the people. This will dampen the insurrection energy. Many readers should be hoping that I’m right.
As my loyal readers know, I am an inventor of an alternative democracy. If I am wrong and a Republican victory (legitimate or illegitimate) results, then enough Americans will realize how broken their democracy really is — and start working to build a new democracy. The USA needs some new founding fathers and mothers. But it seems things have to get worse before they can get better.
In contrast, the Democrat victory will delay this new democracy by another decade.
Both outcomes will bring some pain. One will bring immediate pain. The other will only delay that pain for the ailment will not have been cured. I will let the election work whatever it needs to work out — and adjust my future TDG promotion accordingly.
But if I were a betting man, I would put money on a decisive Democrat win on November 5. And give me 2-to-1 odds, I would bet on the decisively decisive win.
I smell a rout.
Published on Medium 2024
All Hail the Republican Oligarchy
Addendum
Well, I was wrong! I still don't understand why 86m eligible voters choose to stay away from the polls. The stakes were high. The theory of voting for the lesser of two evils should have found at least another 10m votes cast in a D direction. American history would be different, yet still going over a cliff (in my opinion).
But one thing bothered me in this election. On November, I went to Wikipedia to get the vote count. Wiki said 71m for Trump and 65m for Harris. How did I make this call so bad?
It was three weeks before the vote count settled to 77m Trump and 75m Harris. Why did it take this time to count another 16m votes? Something is not right.
