My aunt was a news junky. She read the paper; she had AM radio going all day; she liked her evening news TV programs. Compared to many Canadians, she was fairly up-to-date on civic affairs.
One day, the pollsters found her.
She happily gave them her opinions. She answered all their questions. She gave them a piece of her mind on other issues. My aunt was shaping public policy. She was so good at it that they phoned her on a regular basis for a few years.
My uncle had to chuckle. My aunt never voted once in her life. Going to the voting booth to place her X on a ballot was not on her list of life things to do. She would miss the evening news.
The Faults of Polling
Polls cannot measure a citizen’s desire to express their pleasure or grievance at the ballot box. So are the polls really good at predicting the result of an election?
With my aunt’s demeanour, I had my doubts.
A decade after I left my political party, the pollsters found me. Even though I had my reservations about western democracy, I thought working through the interview was the responsible citizen thing for me to do. My input would help today’s political decision makers to make the world a little better.
I was drained after this hour-long interview. I found the questions juvenile and repetitive. I thought there was more important information the polling company could be gathering. But I did my duty.
A month or so later, the polling company called again. I agreed to the interview. After 10 minutes, I was draining out. I gave some excuse to end the interview early.
The polling company called me again. I said, “I’ll answer your [silly] questions for $50.” The offer was not accepted. The next time they called, I gave my $50 answer. They never called after that.
That was back in the days when nearly all of us had land lines. These days, fewer people have land lines. I read a couple of papers on how the polling companies have adapted get the right statistical information in other ways. But I’m not convinced the new techniques are getting a reasonable “random sample of the people.”
Polling for the 2024 Election
For the American election in November 2024, pollsters are predicting another coin flip election. But with all the antics surrounding the Republican Party, I can see a few million Republicans telling pollsters they are voting Republican but won’t be motivated to vote. I can see a few million traditional non-voters coming to vote for the Democrats. This should secure the Biden win. The pollsters cannot tell us this.
Or maybe they won’t — for good or not-so-good reasons.
Community Polling
I live in a “city” of 15,000 people. When asked, I try to fill out community questionnaires. In this way, our municipal decision makers are basing their decision more on facts than feelings.
If I feel the questionnaire is not well designed, the information gatherers don’t get my input. When the questionnaire meets my standards, I comply with my time and insights.
But I see data coming from a certain demographic: the people who get access to the questionnaire — and are willing to fill it out. I can see many demographics not fulfilling these two traits, which then leads to data that might not be representing our community.
While these questionnaires probably give decision makers better information than no information, I have my doubts that polls are useful to shape society in an effective way.
Pollsters & the TDG
Polling, as we know it today, will be gone when the TDG (Tiered Democratic Governance) is implemented. In the TDG, the entities looking for public information would have a more reliable source for quality data:
The elected TDG representatives.
The TDG will have electoral districts of about 200 residents. Each neighborhood will elect one representative.
This position will be mostly voluntary. Representatives at this level will need only about 20 hours a month on their elected duties.
One of those duties can be to fill out a monthly polling questionnaire.
The government(s) will set up each questionnaire, asking different things each month. The representatives answer the questions to the best of their abilities. The questionnaires are collected, and data is collated. The government(s) has a pretty good data set to make decisions.
Neighborhood representatives bring a unique perspective to this polling process. First, most representatives will see this process as important, so most questionnaires will get filled out. Second, by being elected by their neighbors, the neighborhood representatives would have a reasonable reading of their little world. Third, the polling data would be uniform across a town or city. All parts of the city, town, or county would be represented in this poll. Fourth, the people interpreting this poll would know the kind of people who filled it out. I believe the future poll analyzers will be more comfortable relying on the perspectives of neighborhood representatives than on lonely people willing to talk to pollsters, people earning $50, or people having a land line. Using neighborhood representatives would create a more consistent and representative data set.
Because the TDG does not have dramatic elections, there would be no need for “who are you voting for?” questions. Rather the polls will be much more focused on the actual issues of society, like crime, taxes, and social supports. The respondents will be more thoughtful than a random selection.
The TDG polling will provide more useful information than whatever we are getting today.
Published on Medium 2024
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