I try not to take sides with the Israel/Palestine conflict. The roots are deep, long, and intertwined. Taking one side or the other means ignoring more than a few of these roots. And when we ignore root causes, a good solution will not be found.
But as I have been recently reading Medium articles and watching the talking heads on Canadian news, I have learned a few new and interesting perspectives.
Hamas, the de-facto authority in Gaza, has a membership of 50,000. How those 50,000 are selected is a mystery, but I would wager spending several years digging tunnels is one path to acquiring political influence.
Hamas has cowed its population to not challenge its rule. Imagine that you are a Palestinian male. You might be a doctor, construction contractor, shopkeeper, or truck driver. Despite not being a member of Hamas, you have acquired some degree of comfort in Gaza City (before the current war). You have an apartment, which has nice furniture and a TV. You have a cellphone and a motorcycle.
At any time, all those comforts could be taken away if you offend Hamas. So you keep your critical thoughts to yourself. Is that freedom?
Now imagine you are a Palestinian female. . . . .
It’s time to digress to “1984.”
The Orwell novel has many profound aspects to politics. My preference is the Orwell Ratio. Basically, this ratio gives us the natural human hierarchy: 2% elite, 13% supporters of the elite, and 85% proles. The proles do all the work and soldiering and have little opportunity for advancement. The proles need to be suppressed, in various ways, for the 2% and 13% to keep their privileged societal positions. Members of the 13% — if they don’t want to become part of the 85%, do not challenge the 2%. The 13% will happily suppress the 85%.
I see this ratio so often in current and historical societies. The rise of the middle class in western societies after WW2 was an aberration of history — and not really planned for. The slow fall of the western middle class is only a return to our natural human hierarchy.
Like many western nations, Israel is also part of this fall. It was only a few months ago that the governing coalition in the Knesset tried to render its Supreme Court impotent. This would have meant a simple majority of the current Knesset can overrule the results of a future election that throws out those current members. Is this not an Orwell ratio in the making?
Back to Gaza
According to Wikipedia, Gaza has a population of 2.3m people. With 50,000 members, the Hamas membership is 2.2% of the population. Does anyone now not see the connection between Gaza and the Orwell Ratio? Does the phrase “There’s only so much room at the top” have any relevance here?
Why did Hamas attack Israel so viciously on October 7? It had to have known it could not sustain a prolonged war with Israel. It had to have known that its own citizens would suffer a lot.
Of all the insights on this matter, Medium contributor Sam Young has the best logic that I have run across. I invite you to read Sam’s article:
My Apologies: This link probably only works for Medium members.
Sam’s article should lead us to action. But what are we, so far outside of this conflict, supposed to do?
Protesting seems to be a popular thing to do. However, I am a bit perplexed at so many pro-Palestinian protests in the west. If the protests are effective, that would be a victory for Hamas. But Hamas would never allow similar protests on its own soil. All those other good causes left-wing protesters have clamored for have never been part of Hamas’ political agenda. Hamas is the top 2% of their small society in Gaza — and they are going to keep their big-fish-in-small-pond-to-hell-with-the-little-fish position.
Let me say this more bluntly. The protesting may have a short-term effect to stop the war soon. If so, Hamas will still be in control of Gaza. Hamas will still subject the 98% to its authoritarian rule.
This war is just one small war in a long line of small wars. History suggests war in this region is likely to continue in the future. What can we really do to move this region forward? Like really forward?
History has an example. As the United States was emerging from its collection of 13 colonies to its 19th century expansion, world leaders were looking to the economic success of this new nation, believing that that the primary source of this success was the US constitution. So more than a few nations — mostly in Latin America — adopted a version of the US constitution. Other nations — like the UK and Canada — adopted the principles of American democracy, if not the wording. In this way, the principles of American democracy were exported around the world.
In a similar way, we can export democracy to places like Gaza. Just imagine when Gazan citizens look to our kinder, wiser democracy as an example to replace Hamas.
What kinder, wiser democracy are you talking about, Dave?
Unless you are a believer of a golden age, our current western democracy has never been kind and wise. Today the American version is now capable of electing political leaders wanting to take the USA to Orwell’s Ratio rather than elevate all of society. These leaders want to be the 2%. They will find and bribe the 13% to make it work. Too bad for the 85%.
I think most of us would say handing the Palestinians today’s American version of democracy is kind of pointless. As for the European version, need I mention again the plight of Israel, which has a European democratic structure?
I have a “kinder, wiser democracy” in mind. I have been promoting it for 26 years. But the catch is that average people will have to start building it.
So far, no takers.
Let’s imagine 20 years from now. Maybe this new democracy has taken shape in the USA or Canada or Iceland or Malaysia. When the Palestinian people are ready to shuck off their authoritarian rule, they will have a working example to look toward.
Wouldn’t that working model of a new democracy be better than protesting? And protesting? And more protesting? And protesting to prop up a nefarious 2%?
We really need a new way.
And you get to build it!
Published on Medium in 2023
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