Yep. Politics is unpredictable, even back in less interesting times than we have now.
So rather than put my stake in the ground as to who will win the November presidential race and by how much, I will offer my list of plausible outcomes:
1. 10% Chance. The 50/50 polls are true and lead to a narrow Republican victory. American democracy effectively becomes a one-party rule. Many enemies of the Republicans learn to keep their heads low. Some enemies will continue to defy and cause trouble.
2. 40% Chance. The 50/50 polls are true and lead to a narrow Democrat victory. Expect lots of violence. American democracy will be unsettled. Coupled with this 40%, I also claim a 10% chance that the Democrats will suspend certain civil liberties to maintain order. And I give another 10% chance that the Republicans just might gain control by means similar to the 1776 Revolution. That leaves a 20% chance of a narrow Democrat victory will result in American democracy bumbling its way through these difficult times.
3. 25% Chance. The 50/50 polls are false. The real result is a 65/35 (or better) Democrat victory. Violence is manageable. The Democrats essentially get a decade of one-party rule as the Republicans learn how to be a real political party again.
4. 25% Chance. The actual result is somewhere between 54/46 and 64/36. The aftermath can be interpolated between the 50/50 and 65/35 scenarios. American democracy will be unsettled.
My Ulterior Motive
I am a bottom writer because of my ulterior motive. I want to move people away from complaining about the current system and blaming its actors. I want people to work toward building Tiered Democratic Governance (TDG). But the people do not want this new way, so my musings are mostly ignored.
We could argue that I have not been an effective enough communicator to promote my cause. So the blame lies entirely on me. However, I see no significant way I can improve myself. So the ball is, in effect, in your court.
Regardless, I still like to think about the future. I wonder about the implications of the TDG after November 2024.
TDG under a Republican Oligarchy
While I give a 10% chance of the Republicans winning the presidential race in November, this outcome is, ironically, probably the best scenario to encourage well meaning Americans to build this new democracy. Let me explain further.
Based on the inclinations of the current Republican leader and his entourage, we should expect more ineptness in governance. The legal system and human rights will be held in lower regard.
The Republicans do not understand the nature of Americans. Republicans believe when they assume oligarchic power, Americans will fearfully submit to that rule, similar to other historical peoples. Unfortunately for Republicans, an underground movement will challenge the Republican rule and cause “terrorism.” The terrorists will be many and motivated. The Republicans do not have enough skills in governance to manage this challenge. Within a decade, the Republicans will be pulled off the stage, with many of their early supporters abandoning this movement.
But the fact that the Republicans get to rule in this way just might convince a few Americans that American democracy is indeed messed enough such that the TDG seems to be the only way out. And the TDG needs only 1% to start it off.
In other words, the Republican oligarchy is perhaps the better outcome for the TDG.
It seems logical the Republicans will also persecute the early TDG builders as well as the more direct opposition. If the early TDG builders keep away from that direct opposition, the Republicans will leave the TDG builders alone. The Republicans cannot put everyone who does not like their rule in jail, especially those who are working only 10 hours a month on project that will take 20 years to realize. So the direct opposition serves to attract the attention of the Republican governors — and away from the TDG movement.
When the Republican rule falls, maybe the TDG will be ready to take over.
The TDG under a Democrat Oligarchy
I give a 25% chance that the split will go 65/35 or better in November.
There will still be some post-election violence. But it will be manageable. MAGA will eventually retreat into political oblivion. Demographic trends are not on its side.
With such a result, the people who could become TDG builders will more likely think: “Democracy has been saved. I can go back to my regular life.” So finding the 1% to start building this new way does not seem likely with this outcome.
But democracy has not been saved. The Democrats will essentially have a 10-year monopoly on political power as Republican Party re-constitutes itself. In this time frame, the Democrats will return to disunity, scandals, do-nothing legislatures, and ineffective solutions. They have a free ride to power, so it’s not important to govern well.
The Democrats will not change the rules to allow different players into the political process. Instead, the Democrats will keep the Republicans as a weak foil in American politics. In essence, the USA has become a one-party oligarchy — even though it has many features of a modern democracy.
Is this really the democracy many Americans want?
Has the future already been written?
Some of my Medium writing has stated the short-term American future has already been written. What I mean is that forces have been put into play years ago. While the top players can still affect the final outcome, there is not much average people can do anymore to change the course of the future. This includes applying pressure to the top players to do this or that. So writing another 100,000 Medium political articles between now and November will not change our future history.
How you can write the future
But we all can choose to build a new democracy. The democracy we really want. A kinder democracy. A wiser democracy.
Why wait for November? Let’s start now!
Published on Medium 2024
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