Circa 1980, I read Isaac Asimov’s Foundation trilogy. This science fiction series from the 1950s had an interesting message:
Democracy is not forever.
Even though the Foundation series was a great story, I just couldn’t understand why the planet Terminus lost its democracy. But that story arc stayed with me.
It was not until 1992 that I finally understood Asimov’s message. I had spent six years as an active volunteer in a Canadian political party. Eventually, I realized that internal party politics is inherently dysfunctional, as overly ambitious people are climbing over each other to gain status, influence, and power. And, like a bad marriage or friendship, democracy cannot last forever under that stress.
Asimov and my Canadian political experience had prepared me for the fall of Western democracy.
Also in 1992, I somehow invented another system of governance that addressed all the dysfunction I was seeing. But it took until 2009 for me to put all the pieces together to confidently show how this system could work.
At that time, I thought, “This system will take 20 years to build. American democracy should be able to hold things together until this new democracy can take over.”
But no one was interested in 2009. After all, American democracy was forever, right? Why look at a different democracy?
Another Prophet?
In 2017, Steven Levitsky & Daniel Ziblatt wrote a book called How Democracies Die. It described how previous democracies dismantled themselves. It showed how the first year of the Trump presidency was following similar steps for dismantling American democracy. The writers were prophesying the next steps Mr. Trump would take, in a general sense. I don’t think many readers of this book are surprised by where we are today.
I joined Medium in 2019. While I was one of many writers writing about the fall of American democracy, I wasn’t convinced that the other writers were as convinced as I was. Rather, I saw their ulterior motives: they were either flogging for Medium shekels or trying make Mr. Trump less electable. I didn’t get the impression that these writers really believed that the indomitable American democracy could fall.
In the days after January 6, 2021, I thought the popular pundits did not understand what had happened. They portrayed the event as hooligans who were incited by a sore-loser president to “do something wild.” The protest got out of control.
At the end of that day, pundits said, “democracy triumphed over fascism.” We cheered. We only wanted consequences so that such a protest would not happen again.
Six months ago, I was seeing two plausible outcomes for November 2024.
1) The Republicans earn a narrow victory. They move more toward a one-party rule. But there will be a lot of resistance. The USA will be difficult to govern under authoritarian rule.
2) The Democrats earn a narrow victory. Unfortunately, a narrow D victory in these times is problematic for charges of election fraud, which lead to justifying “patriot means” to fix the problem. And if Mr. Trump does go to prison, he has nothing to lose by saying to his ardent supporters something like: “Occupy All Federal Buildings.” Expect a muck of a fess with a narrow D victory.
The future of both outcomes did not look good.
Last fall, I was seeing a new dynamic in political discourse. This six-part series is about a new political path that the USA can take.
3) The Democrats can earn a decisively decisive victory in November.
This would be a better outcome than the previous two outcomes. To find that victory, at least 1M Americans need to go beyond the usual ways for average people to participate in democracy: i.e. complaining, protesting, and voting. They need to ally with the Democratic Party and its election machine to bring about this victory. My third article presents political activities for those
This makes Dave a Democrat, right
This Medium series might give the impression that I am a supporter of the Democratic Party. I wish to clarify my position.
My main purpose for being on Medium is my alternative democracy. The election of Mr. Trump in 2016 is proof of how bad we need this democracy.
In terms of the USA (and the rest of the world) eventually adopting Tiered Democratic Governance (TDG), the outcome of Election 2024 probably won’t matter that much. The TDG can be built with any of the three outcomes that I have just listed.
A Narrow Republican Victory
If this happens, we should expect an accelerated movement toward an authoritarian rule. Laws will be more arbitrary.
Unlike other nations and times where the people accepted their oppression, there will be a lot of resistance to the Republicans. The new governors will have all the usual challenge of governing, plus dealing with a lot of civil unrest from the political left. From what we’ve seen in the past decade, the Republicans are not that great at governing. Even an authoritarian structure will not save them.
While the unrest and poor governance will put a damper on the economy and social order, the USA will still chug along. Fields will still grow wheat; the automotive industry will make new vehicles; office workers will move information around; banks will hold deposits and issue loans. Most of us will still have jobs, probably worse jobs than before. But most of us will survive. Most of us will learn to keep our heads low.
But a Republican rule could bring about a new cadre of political activists. I’m talking about those Americans who will finally realize that their 18th century system of governance no longer works in the 21st century. These Americans would be more motivated to start building the TDG.
We could assume the Republicans would like to squash this TDG movement, as it would seem to be a threat to their rule. But practically, the Republicans would be too busy putting out too many other fires to try to tackle the problem of thousands of American neighborhoods spending 10 hours a month to build a new system of governance that is at least a decade away. In fact, the early TDG builders would likely be safer from political persecution than former members of the Democrat Party.
In summary, the Republican authoritarian rule could accelerate the TDG movement, because sometimes going backwards allows us to better see the direction forward.
So now it seems I’m cheering for the Republicans!
A Narrow Democrat Victory
The political right has enough people willing to die for its cause. My fourth article of this series explains that the current political turmoil is more about a power struggle than a collection of social issues.
A narrow D victory increases the psychological pressure for some ardent Republicans to seek right-wing martyrdom. Did I mention a muck of a fess?
With all the unrest, it is plausible that the political left makes a movement towards its own authoritarian rule.
If the D’s win a narrow victory, my crystal ball is murky and dark, regardless of how I peer into it.
But like a Republican one-party rule, the TDG can still be built in these times. It will still be underground but have fewer problems from the authorities.
A Decisively Decisive Democrat Victory
Let’s assume that the Democrat Party finds that 1% (maybe even 5%) of Americans willing to work the election with the party in a productive way. The USA gets that 75/25 split. The civil unrest is much less than the other two outcomes. It will be manageable.
What happens after?
To have some real influence, a few of the new helpers will try to insert themselves into the Democrat machine. But politics is a competitive endeavor. It will not be easy displace the longer-serving Democrats. So it’s unlikely the Americans who gave the Democrats their huge victory will have much influence after the election. Not being politically competitive, most will happily step aside anyways. They will be content that they helped "save democracy."
So the Democrat Party will revert back to its usual ways. It might become arrogant, believing that it is now unbeatable. The various factions start infighting to the point where they can’t pass any good legislation. Too many third-rate politicians will get leadership positions. Nefarious wealthy forces will still have too much influence.
This likely trend has an effect for elections after 2024. There would be fewer donations and volunteers to fight the next election. Soft D supporters would be less inclined to vote. The political right would become emboldened again, this time with a more capable leader.
How is this a good long-term solution?
Dave’s Long-Term Solution
As mentioned earlier, a narrow Republican victory might be the best chance of building the TDG sooner rather than later.
But if you don’t like that path, here is a checklist for the USA to take a different path:
1. Recognize that American democracy might fall.
2. This democracy need not fall — if this next step is taken. At least 1M Americans (above the usual Democrat election machine) work on the 2024 campaign for the D’s, working on the activities that lead to a 65/35 split (or better). One million extra helpers, each causing a 50-vote shift, should guarantee the coin flipping in the right way. Three million extra workers would turn this election from narrow victory to “decisively decisive.” These new helpers need to clobber the Republicans.
3. After recognizing how important their contribution was for the D’s to earn that decisively decisive win, those extra D workers recognize their unity can also build the TDG.
I believe #1 has already happened.
With or without my help, #2 stands a good chance of being realized. Please note that these new democracy fighters need to follow the instructions in my third article. Posting clips and memes on the internet is marginal in terms of better electoral results. In other words, if this was a great strategy, it would have worked in 2016 and 2020.
So this leaves #3! Fulfilling #3 is important because — if we don’t — then America gets to go through this quasi-authoritarian cycle again, probably with a more capable Republican leader. So much societal energy is lost fighting these battles.
So, will that 1M Americans (or more) step away from politics after November? Or will they start to work on the TDG?
Methinks the TDG is not on their radar.
But six months ago, the fall of American democracy was not widely accepted as plausible.
So attitudes toward the TDG can also change.
Published on Medium 2024
The Day American Democracy Died
