In my mind, November 2, 2021, was the day American democracy died.
Since then, one of my several sub-themes has been the likely violence to follow the 2024 election. I am still a “bottom” writer, so this theme is not helping me rise higher. It seems Medium readers do not like my message of political violence in the USA.
My political fortune-telling
In the summer of 2016, Donald Trump was at the top of the pack in the Republican primary. I — and many other pundits — expected this celebrity political neophyte to get a respectable fourth-place showing, drop from the race, and go back to business. There were some sensible Republicans, like John Kasich and Jeb Bush who had the political skills to explain conservatism in a sensible way. But they did not rise to the top.
Clearly, the Trump rise was something strange. Most of us missed the signs. However, I still concluded long before the established pundits: “Donald Trump could indeed be President.”
As the campaign wore on, the popular pundits were predicting a Clinton victory. But the polls were telling me a coin-flip election was where the USA was heading — and I knew the Republicans had a little advantage in the Electoral College counting. The CNN news people were so stunned on November 8, 2016. They did not see this result coming.
I also predicted that the Trump presidency would be theatrical and amateurish. I was right again.
I also predicted that by the end of 2017, this presidency would unravel to the point that the Republican Party would somehow take control of this office. I was wrong. I was so wrong.
Politics is so unpredictable
I hope I’m wrong again. But despite the recent reversals of the Democratic party, I’m still predicting violence after November 5, 2024.
The Soft Support Voter
When I conduct a political analysis, I tend to look at the intent of the soft support voters. How motivated are they to vote?
I have about 20 Medium articles on soft support voters. But it seems I would be better off writing about the cows on Mars than writing about voters who “kind of” support a particular party. Political junkies don’t understand or don’t want to understand fickle political support. I know: I used to be a political junkie. Maybe still not cured.
But professional campaign managers sure understand soft support. Much of any election campaign is about managing soft support.
The Soft Support Democrats
The recent Democratic National Convention, with its leader anointed beforehand, was mostly about getting donations and campaign workers to later convince the soft-support Democrats to vote on November 5. I think the convention did a very good job in that matter. But it’s unlikely the soft Democrat supporters spent their free time in front of the TV watching the show, digesting all of its happy feelings. They are just not that interested in politics.
These people need encouragement to vote. Constant encouragement. If the political junkies assume the soft support has become as committed to vote as the junkies, that’s a good way to lose a close election.
If you have identified yourself as a Democratic/Harris/Walz supporter, expect to get lots of contact from your local Democratic office. Even though you get annoyed, remember that the campaign team cannot afford to assume you are a committed voter. They are annoying you for a reason: they know more votes come their way on Election Day with the constant reminders to vote.
The Non-Voters
Last election, 78M American voters did not vote, despite the obvious stakes. It is plausible that half of them can be convinced to vote — and most of those votes will go Democrat.
The Suppressed Voters
My Mastodon feed has many little stories about Democrats fighting voter suppression techniques in the red states. These battles are being fought in courtrooms, and they are being fought “not-at-the-last-minute.”
These political warriors will win some battles, yielding a few more votes for the Democrats. More importantly, they are forcing the Republicans to defend their own turf, taking resources away from the swing states.
But perhaps what is even more important, the Democrats are being pro-active. They will need this attitude for the future after November 5.
The Republican Soft Support
Not all Republicans behave and think like the people who attend Trump rallies. While we have seen some high-profile Republicans defecting to the Democrats for this election, there are millions of traditional Republican voters who will not make this big of change. But they can be convinced to stay home on election day, which is almost as good as voting Democrat.
I believe the Democrats have the resources and advertising skills to convince some Republican voters to stay home on Election Day. Plus some of the recent antics of Mr. Trump and Mr. Vance are not helping some of the soft Republican support stay committed. I estimate five million Republican voters becoming non-voters, which will be enough to tip the balance in a D way.
Dave’s Prediction
As I am watching the election from my side of a TV screen in Canada, I’m calling a Democrat win. That’s how I see where the soft support is forming.
But the margin of victory is important in this election. A 65/35 split will likely dampen the violence after November 5, but there will still be violence. A 55/45 split will make the violence a serious political force to manage.
In May, I wrote an article offering my probabilities of the aftermath of November 5:
· Legitimate R win: 10%
· USA moves toward an R or D oligarchy: 40%
· Narrow D win: 25%
· Decisively decisive D win: 25%
Since the Biden resignation and its aftermath, here is my probability breakdown:
· Legitimate R win: 1%
· USA moves toward an R or D oligarchy: 19%
· Narrow D win: 30%
· Decisively decisive D win: 50%
Today’s Messaging of Donald Trump
The man is an enigma. As I alluded to earlier, I believed he would have been cowed or driven out in 2018 by internal party politics. Yet here he still is, a political force to reckon with. He is politically smarter than we think he is.
When I listen to his speeches of today, I have to ask: “Who is he messaging to?”
I don’t see his messages resonating with the traditional non-voters. If anything, the messages are driving this demographic to vote D.
I don’t see his messages resonating with soft D supporters, convincing them not to vote.
I don’t see his messages resonating with soft R supporters, convincing them to remain faithful.
He is not campaigning in the usual sense. Almost content to validate the hard R support, again and again and again. There are no extra votes here. There is no outreach beyond this political demographic.
So to whom are his messages directed?
The answer goes back to the American psyche. The American myth likes to portray that the colonies were grossly mismanaged by the British — and the British deserved to be kicked out. If the Americans revolted justly in 1776, could they not do another justly revolution today? The USA is, in their opinion, mismanaged today.
A lot of the Trump messaging brings back this revolutionary spirit. Enough Americans have bought into this message for today. And they have enough firearms and military skills to make a muck of a fess. They are willing to die for their cause.
How many? 1,000? 10,000? 100,000? I don’t know. But each utterance of Mr. Trump is convincing a few more of them to take their politics beyond the ballot box count and toward a revolution.
The Good News
I don’t see the recent Trump messaging as building the necessary alliances in the military and police to pull off a successful coup. But we never know about the secret meetings that happen in politics, even in normal times.
The Democrats seem to be proactive with voter suppression techniques. I’m going to assume that the back-room Democrats are proactive in planning for eventual violence after November 5.
The Bad News
I expect about five Waco-like situations to erupt after November 5. These situations are delicate. If they are handled too forcefully and too quickly, more Republicans are likely to join the revolutionaries. If they are handled too laxly, more Republicans are likely to join the revolutionaries.
Finding the balance
Hopefully, the people in the back political rooms have consulted with back-room psychologists and sociologists to understand the dynamics of Waco-like situations. As well, the media will need to be managed wisely. I assume some plans are being put in place.
While I am comfortable in preparing a set of probabilities for the victor for November 5, I really can’t do the same for whether the Harris presidency will handle the violence wisely. Maybe a woman’s intuition is needed here. The USA is in uncharted territory.
And a lot will depend on the margin of November 5. A 65/35 split will take a lot of steam out of the violence. From what I can see, the D campaign machine is working to that objective, not content with a 52/48 split like it was in 2016 and 2020. It seems the people in the back D rooms are seeing the violent future and are working toward a big split to mitigate that violence.
· A decisively decisive D victory will create less violence.
· A normal D victory will only re-bolden the MAGA movement.
· Do not assume the hard-hard-core Republicans will acquiesce to any D victory.
It’s so unpopular to think about these outcomes. No wonder I’m a bottom writer.
Published on Medium 2024
I Tried to Save the USA in 2009
Addendum
Well I was wrong about the decisively decisive Democrat win. There were 86m eligible voters who sat this election out, despite the stakes. Five million of them could have given a Harris win. American elections are so fickle in who gets to write history.
