What a difference one little change in political personnel makes. The resignation of Joe Biden has re-energized the political left. The Republicans seem to be on the defensive.
I have viewed a few recent political speeches of Kamala Harris. I see someone who has matured politically since her days as a presidential candidate for the Democratic Party and her first year as vice-president. She is a much more polished performer than she was two years ago. Because of her fresh face and aggressive performance, donations have been pouring in and more volunteers are committing support.
From my feeds, both Medium and Mastodon are ga-ga over the new leader. A new messiah seems to have arisen!
Methinks Ms. Harris has been lying low for the past two years just to practice the skills needed to take over. She seems to have patiently waited for the right forces to appear. Maybe she can see and plan for the future better than your average politician.
I too am caught up in the hype. In May, I wrote a Medium article about all the plausible outcomes of November 5, 2024.
In this article, I gave a 25% chance to a “decisively decisive” Democratic victory. Now, I have improved that outcome to 40%.
BTW, “decisively decisive victory” means a 65/35 (or better) split. This margin should quell much of the anticipated violence that will happen after November 5. I believe the political math is there for Harris to trounce Trump.
The American media outlets have a vested interest in reporting polls that give a 50/50 split. And like in 2016, I think a surprise is in the works.
There are still 103 days in the campaign. Strange events are possible to raise or lower the probability of this outcome. I think Mr. Trump needs to explain the injury to his ear a little better.
The Harris presidency
Let’s assume the decisively decisive victory is the November 5 result. Let’s give her the Oval Office.
Unfortunately, a significant portion of the MAGA movement will not accept this result. And they have been inculcated to enact their Plan B. They see themselves as the Patriots of 1776 — and the British need to be kicked out. There will be violence.
Will Ms. Harris have the right political skills to handle this violence? Like maybe five Waco-like scenarios at the same time? That is hard to say. It is one thing to craft fantastic speeches. It is quite another to make quick and right decisions as the difficult situations unfold. I don’t know how rookie political leaders can prepare for this. Maybe she has an instinct for managing this turmoil. Or maybe she knows how to find good advisers to help her make more good decisions than bad ones.
And there are the two wars glaring on our TV screens. I think continual support for Ukraine will be an easy answer. But handling Israel and Hamas and West Bank has no easy answer. Maybe Mr. Biden, now being a lame duck president, can work some behind-the-scenes magic before Ms. Harris assumes office, like telling Mr. Netanyahu: “You can deal with me now or deal with her later.”
Ms. Harris has undoubtedly improved her speech-making skills. This will not only serve her well in her communication responsibilities; she will have proven to many behind-the-scenes power brokers that she can get the votes that allow these power brokers to be power brokers. She can use that power to intimidate them into co-operation, more toward her level than to theirs. But does she have the leaderships skills for these back-room dealings? And keeping her party united at the same time? Mr.Trump certainly did.
Early in her term, she was admonished for not being able to maintain a functional vice-president’s office. Has she learned from this experience? We don’t know: her office did not seem to be “out there” in the past two years.
The truth is: We really don’t know enough about Ms. Harris for how she will assume her new role after November 5. She can make another 100 great campaign speeches — and we still won’t know.
And I think this is true of any rookie top-level politician, anywhere in the world. We are rolling the dice here. We are often rolling the dice.
Back to 2008
The USA has been through this before. In 2008, another rookie took the presidency. Many Americans believed the USA had found a new political messiah.
While Mr. Obama did not have personal controversies plaguing other presidents, his façade still slowly faded. In time, he disappointed many of his early admirers. In many eyes, he became just another politician.
We can blame Mr. Obama for failing to meet the mandate we had given him. But those of us on the outside really do not understand the forces that shape how the inside really works. The culture in the football stands is much different than the culture on the football sidelines and in the football locker rooms and executive offices.
Mr. Obama was beset with forces he probably wanted to overcome, but he could not. I have written a satirical play about one of the difficult choices he had to make:
A 2009 Conversation between President Obama and a Central Banker
In other words, it is not the fault of Mr. Obama. I believe he was a good man who was working in a faulty system. The same system that allowed a probable psychopath to win in 2016. The same system that allowed a naïve view of geopolitics to win in 2000. The same system that allowed a figure with a known proclivity for silly controversies to win in 1992.
If we are to follow history, the façade of Ms. Harris will start fading around November 2025. To many of today’s supporters, she will become just another politician. At best. And we are rolling the dice.
We need a new system
We can start building it now. Or we can wait until we get disappointed — again.
Or maybe we can wait for the next political messiah. And then watch that messiah become just another politician. Wash, rinse, repeat. That has been our history. That is probably our future. When will we break this cycle?
Published on Medium 2024
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