In the first article of this series, I explain the difference between hard and soft support for political parties. Good election strategy is about managing the soft support.
In the second article, I explain the math for a decisively decisive win for the Democrat Party in November.
In the third article, I explained your role to help the Democrat Party get that decisively decisive win.
This fourth article of this six-article series is about knowing your adversary.
Sun Tzu said:
Know the enemy and know yourself in a hundred battles you will never be in peril. When you are ignorant of the enemy but know yourself, your chances of winning or losing are equal. If ignorant both of your enemy and of yourself, you are certain in every battle to be in peril.
Critics of the American political right assume that all Republican voters belong to the extreme side of the demographics known as small-government conservatives, racists, misogynists, evangelicals, and a few other not-nice terms.
Maybe it feels good to call them such names. While there is some truth to the “above list,” I think Sun Tzu would say to us: “You really don’t know your enemy.”
In this article, I will delve into two deeper reasons to help understand the MAGA demographic.
The social factor
Imagine a small group of Trump supporters. When they gather socially, much of their talk is favorable to their leader and party. They have built friendships, social engagements, and support networks with this cadre of like-minded people.
Now just imagine that one of them sees the light. He now realizes that the movement he belongs to is foolish. What happens if he recants?
Answer: He will lose most of his current social circle!
Such a psychological loss would be very hard for most of us. We will find ways to avoid this discomfort. Our brain will devise rational ways to not go in this direction. Our cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias will go into overdrive. This defense of the psyche keeps us — the believer — in the same position as before.
That is why rightful thinking and great logic are not likely to change their minds. We humans do not alter our values systems that quickly.
So do not expect many ardent Republican supporters to change their political outlet.
The power factor
I have written a couple of Medium articles that shed some light on “the enemy.”
Racism: A Symptom of Something Bigger
In this article, I hypothesize putting 1000 human beings on a deserted island. This island has all the resources for this group to survive, but it will be hard work.
I go through several scenarios of different groups making up that 1000 people. In all cases, we should expect this group to set up some kind of hierarchy, where a few people are on the top, a few more in the middle, and many at the bottom. This result is fairly predictable in that we humans have failed to produce any true kind of egalitarian society beyond small groups.
In the article, I posit that we humans will find ways to divide ourselves to create that hierarchy. I also posit that racism is merely a tool that helps the hierarchy to set itself up. In other words, race makes it easier to divide those who have and those who have not. We could extend this posit to other forms of tribalism than just racism.
Let's move to my second article, which is the Orwell Ratio. Basically 2% of any society constitute the elite, 13% support the elite, and 85% are the proles.
I posit that this 2%/13%/85% ratio is a natural organization for humans. In other words, this ratio is our hierarchical instinct.
The 85% seem to get the shaft in this Orwell deal. We could argue that they are oppressed to the extent that they won’t resist. But maybe they also recognize that the current social order that discriminates against them is better than no social order.
The strong middle class that emerged after WW2 is an aberration of the normal order. Since about 1990, the western world has been moving back to our natural order.
The question that should be asked is: “Who should be the 2% and 13% of that natural order?”
Many in the MAGA demographic were or still are members of the middle class. But they have been losing ground. And they see fewer opportunities for their children. From their perspective, they seem to be heading to the 85%. Think about that!
When they get to that 85%, it would be very difficult to climb out. Think about that!
Unconvinced! Let me take you to the American aristocracy.
This article summarizes how wealthy Americans are able to keep their children in the same wealthy economic class. Just like the good old days of feudalism.
And MAGA knows they are not part of that aristocracy. Think about that!
The unity of the right
Then, in 2015, a famous man rode down an escalator. As the Republican primary moved forward, this man was showing signs that he was taking the Orwell Ratio in a different direction. MAGA’s vision of his vision would see their demographic somehow belonging to the 2% and 13%, not the 85%. Many Republicans figured this out in 2016! Before even that famous man came to this realization.
Is it any wonder why they prefer their Orwell Ratio to the Orwell Ratio that favors the American aristocracy?
It is only natural that if an opportunity arises to seize that 2% or 13%, it should be taken. Otherwise, that group could be stuck in the 85%, probably the bottom half of that 85%. The man riding the escalator gave them the opportunity.
In other words, MAGA is only behaving with the same instinct that is inherent in most of us. Fighting to be in the 2% or 13% is a natural part of human nature. Fighting not to be in the 85% is also a part of human nature.
In other words, MAGA was able to see a plausible authoritarian regime long before the rest of us. And their demographic would be riding higher in the new pecking order than the pecking order of wherever the USA was going before. MAGA people are committed. They are unified. They are mobilized. They are ready.
If they can’t get power democratically, they have the numbers and resources to resort to more revolutionary means. That’s their Plan B. This is why a narrow Democratic victory in November is not a good outcome. The more sensible Americans need to do more than complain, protest, and vote to avoid this outcome.
While there are many issues, like climate change and abortion, facing the USA today, the overarching issue is the upcoming power struggle.
Do all Americans share in the democratic process where inept governors can be thrown out with a ballot box?
Or do 25% of Americans get to call most of the shots?
MAGA sees their brass ring is not that far away.
Do you not understand why they are going for it?
Managing MAGA
The previous section paints MAGA in a not-so-good humanistic light. They see the world as a zero-sum game. So for MAGA to get some of the better things for themselves, others have to suffer. If this means sacrificing some humanistic principles, so be it. Sounds callous, but this is how most of humanity has operated for several millennia. MAGA is only operating on a natural human instinct to be on the better side of the Orwell Ratio.
We could argue that MAGA is being conned into this thinking. The people who promise MAGA will most likely not be able to deliver on their promise. And the promisers already know that. But this future broken promise is a moot point. We have to take charge and manage the situation from our unique position of “understanding our enemy.”
Despite its political effectiveness, MAGA is not a monolithic social/political movement. Yes, there are MAGA people who would like to go back to the slavery days (as long as they are not the slaves). But there are many more MAGA people who just want to be assured of a reasonably comfortable life for themselves. It’s with this latter group that we can change some psyches a little.
Our work starts with acknowledging that we won’t be able to change their value system in the short term. So a big turnaround in societal views before November 2024 is not possible.
I believe this MAGA subgroup is already somewhat uncomfortable with the direction of the Republican Party. With the right kind of messaging, we can convince some of them not to vote. In this way, they still retain their social group, something nearly all of us need. In this way, the USA gets the decisively decisive political victory it needs to delay an authoritarian rule.
If I did not say it loudly enough in that third article, let me say it again more loudly in this fourth article. Posting anti-Trump, anti-Republican, anti-MAGA sentiments on the internet may be therapeutic or cathartic to you, but it will not contribute much to a better result at the ballot box in 2024. Put your spare time and energy into the tasks that will result a difference in the vote tallies, not what makes you feel good. Read my third article again.
How to Clobber the Republicans in November
The short-term goal is to convince some of the MAGA people not to vote in November. This will contribute to the 65/35 (or better) split for the Democratic Party. This is within your sphere of influence.
With this split and after November 2024, some MAGA people will start moving away from their current value system. It might be a decade before the USA sees significant results, but the movement is in the right direction.
In contrast, a narrow Democrat victory is more likely to validate and entrench those MAGA values. This means this narrow victory will not really be a victory.
“Know your enemy,” says Sun Tzu.
Then we can manage this political situation, wisely and patiently.
Publish on Medium 2024
The Day American Democracy Died
