My second article in this series explains how the political math is all there for the Democrats to take a decisively decisive victory in November 2024.
I use the term “decisively decisive” for a good reason. Many Americans would consider a 53–47 electoral split to be a decisive victory. We Canadians would call that a close election. So I hope “decisively decisive” conjures an image of a 65/35 split, in favor of the D’s. Maybe even 75/25.
Such a large split should make many Republicans realize that a significant majority of Americans do not want their one-party rule. So this overwhelming victory is a much more worthy goal than a narrow win.
While the math is there for a decisively decisive victory, it will still require wise effort to convince the traditional non-voters to vote against the Republicans. So how do we do that?
The first step is to understand the two basic principles of managing soft support voters, which I mentioned in the first article of this series:
1) A political party needs to identify its soft support and convince them to vote.
2) A political party needs to cast negative impressions to the soft support of their opponents. The goal is to convince these supporters not to vote.
With these two principles as focused campaign objectives, average Americans — who are not usually in positions of political power — can help the Democrat Party get that decisively decisive win.
Before I get into the ways to earn a decisively decisive victory, I have a couple more tidbits on electioneering.
First, soft supporters are inundated with many campaign messages. Some messages encourage them to vote. Other messages encourage them not to vote. The decision to vote or not is a culmination of all the messages they have received and processed. In other words, there is no silver bullet to tweak a soft supporter to make the trip to the voting station — or not. Consider managing soft support as a team effort.
Second, it is sometimes difficult to tell a hard-support voter from a soft-support voter. So you have to play a numbers game. Some of your efforts will be useful in reaching the final outcome; some will not.
Now it’s time to get into the ways you can help.
Don’t insult the non-voters
The math that could give the Democrats a decisively decisive victory in November 2024 was there in 2016 and 2020. The non-voters could have easily denied the 2016 Trump victory. The non-voters could have given the 2020 Biden victory a bigger margin, making claims of electoral fraud even less credible than they were. It is so tempting to blame the non-voters for the current state of the USA.
Please understand the non-voters have good reasons for not voting. Perhaps the biggest reason is how the Democrat Party did little but watch the middle class erode in the past three decades.
But the stakes for America’s future are a lot higher than they were three years ago. The forces for a continued American democracy need the support of the non-voters.
Be nice to the non-voters. Understand they had good reasons for their apathy. Remind them of the stakes. Be nice.
Canvassing for the Democrats
Starting in September, you can commit to one or more evenings a week canvassing for Joe Biden.
Go to your local Democrat campaign office. There should be someone there to train you and give you an assignment.
As a canvasser, you engage with Joe Biden’s soft support. Many of them like the friendly face-to-face encounter of their preferred political party. When soft supporters see the canvassers making a big effort to meet the people, the soft supporters feel more obligated to invest the lesser effort to vote.
Canvassing one evening a week in September and October should help bring in 50 extra votes for Joe Biden in November. Two evenings a week will bring in more votes.
I have done a fair amount of house-to-house canvassing circa 1990 in Canada. It is work I would never consider as a paid occupation. But canvassing will also give you a look at a part of the USA you have not seen before. You will learn and feel things. Hint: Americans are clearly not Hollywood.
Having said that, it’s been 30 years since I’ve done any political canvassing. The worst thing that happened to me was a few doors slammed in my face. In these days of polarization, there will be more intense rejection. Canvassing has likely evolved since then. But go to the Democrat campaign office and find out what you can do for the campaign.
Engage with your neighbors — and relatives — and acquaintances
You can do some informal canvassing with your social circle. If they are D supporters, remind them of the stakes and the importance of voting.
If they are supporters of the other side, take on the role of a negative campaign ad. Be negative. Be quick. Be civil. You need not win the argument. You need only put a little doubt in this person’s mind. Leave that doubt to percolate.
Here is my suggested ad copy for your negative ad to your social circle of the other side:
“I’m not voting Republican because I don’t think my family will do well under a dictatorship.”
Do you see the beauty in these 16 words?
1. There’s no mention of the Democrats or Joe Biden.
2. The “dictatorship” assumes both you and the other side are aware of this anticipated future political state.
3. With a dictatorship, everyone knows there will be obvious losers. It forces the other side to consider that other people will suffer hardship.
4. And “family!” This makes the message more personal and relatable. Most R’s understand family connections.
Ideally, this 16-word phrase should stop this political conversation cold. There is no need for you to add anything else. Let it percolate!
If your favorite Republican wants to further the discussion, just say:
“This is what I believe. I have the right to vote, and I will vote on that belief. You can believe whatever you want.”
This second response allows the “other side” to keep his belief intact — if that is what he or she wants. It mentions “voting rights,” something likely to be taken away in a dictatorship. Try your best to end the political conversation right there. You have done your job. There is nothing further to gain. But thoughts are now percolating.
For hard-support Republicans, such a conversation will have no effect. While they just might march into the voting booth that much faster because of your interaction, they still only get one vote.
But for soft-support Republican, you just added a bit more doubt to their preference. Imagine their psyche if they have 10 conversations like this between now and November.
Can you set up 25 conversations like this? Less than one conversation per week. If so, you might be convincing 10 or so soft-R people to not vote. A vote not cast for the Republicans is almost as good as a vote for the Democrats. Be happy with the vote not cast.
Donate to the Democratic Party
Need I say more? Political parties need $$$$ to put up all those negative ads to convince the soft support of the other side not to vote.
Work some overtime or a second job to pay for your donation. I would consider that time as campaign work to get that decisively decisive victory.
Campaigning from a blue state
If you live in a solid blue state, it might be tempting to not help the Democrats because the result is a Democrat victory whether you participate at this level or not.
But rest assured, your work will have an impact on the national result. By working with the blue-state campaign, you enhance the comfortable margin in your state. This will allow the national campaign managers to shift resources away from your safe state to the more competitive states. Money and experienced campaign workers will move to the battlegrounds.
Extra money and experience could even be moved to the “safe” red states. That’ll keep the Republicans on the defensive. Wouldn’t it be fun to watch them fumble the ball on their own 10-yard line? Just because we put some time in a safe blue state.
Working against voter suppression
Undoubtedly, some red states have set up rules designed to suppress voting from African Americans and other communities. If you live in a red state and you know of people not on the voters list, work to get them on the list.
Get a list together of potential voters. Go to the electoral offices. Have the officials read their own election rules to you and explain why these people cannot vote. Find out what it takes to get these citizens on the voters list.
While an important goal is the extra votes for the D’s, perhaps more important is that you will be directly or indirectly getting under the skins of these election officials and their Republican allies. Cast that seed of doubt into the internal machinations of the Republican Party. Be civil and persistent. Wear them down. Other great things will fall into place when some personal breaking points are reached.
But don’t wait until September to fight voter suppression. Too late by then.
Keep working, right up to the last day
At the time of this essay, polls are suggesting another coin-flip election. Like it or not, Donald Trump is still a viable contender. The silliest of things could decide the winner.
But in 1972 and 1980, the polls were predicting a clear winner long before election day. The USA needs the same result in 2024.
I predict that the polls will be predicting a clear Democrat victory by early-October. It might be tempting to let up on your campaign work. But it is important that you keep up your efforts for two reasons.
First, politics is unpredictable. One bad news story could cause 1,000,000 soft D supporters not to vote, which might flip a few states and their Electoral College votes in a Republican way. It’s best for all campaign workers to assume they are indeed in a coin-flip election. That way, the election machine stays strong to minimize the impact of any bad news.
Second, the hard-support Republicans really need to hear that a significant majority of Americans do not want their one-party rule. The best way to deliver that message is a decisively decisive win.
Writing articles for Medium (and other social media)
More than a few political writers on Medium have told me that if their written work convinces two people to change their vote, then all those hours and hours and hours on Medium were a good investment in democracy.
Hours and hours to get two extra votes?
Is that really good use of one’s political time?
Let me remind everyone of the two primary tasks in this election:
1) Convincing our soft support to vote.
2) Convincing their soft support not to vote.
If you are not engaging with soft supporters, your messages will be of little effect. Sorry, I just don’t think many of the 78M non-voters are on Medium. The few conservatives on Medium believe they are affecting your psyche more than you are affecting theirs.
Yes, you might assist in a handful of voting conversions with your Medium activity. But, on a per-hour basis, there will be more conversions by canvassing and by fighting voter suppression. Choose activities with the best return for the decisively decisive win.
Consider these three points when campaigning on your favorite social media sites:
1. Personal catharsis does not mean a better electoral outcome.
2. The media is already putting up similar messages to what you can. The media has some reach into the soft supporters. You probably do not.
3. Mr. Trump has been surviving negative internet chatter since 2016. He is still a viable contender.
I would consider time spent on most social media as ineffective, in terms of earning the decisively decisive victory.
Please consider that if a campaign activity is easy for you to do, it is probably not that effective in changing the electoral outcome. Look at the ways outlined in this essay. You can make a 50-vote difference by November by following these ways.
Imagine if 1M Americans did political activities to get their own 50-vote difference. Imagine 5M Americans doing this.
Conclusion
A 65–35 split (or better) is the desired outcome for November.
This victory is possible, but it requires effort. Wise effort.
This victory is possible within the current rules and proven ways of American democracy.
Work within these rules and ways.
Published on Medium 2024
