Election 2024 is eminently winnable for the Democrat Party! It’s all in the math.
In 2020, 33.4% of eligible American voters did not vote. Seventy-eight million! They are key to defeating the Republicans and for the near future of the USA.
A typical red state
Let’s create a hypothetical red state. It has 3,000,000 eligible voters. The R-to-D split last election was 58% to 42%. To most of you, this is a definite red state, incapable of flipping in 2024.
But 33.4% of eligible voters in this state did not vote last time. That number comes out to 1,000,000 votes not cast in this state.
So the other 2,000,000 eligible voters had gone the 58/42 split that I stated earlier. In raw numbers, this means 1,160,000 for the R’s to 840,000 for the D’s. That’s a difference of 320,000 votes.
If you are not seeing the math yet, let me do a little more math.
The difference between the R’s and D’s is a lot less than the people who did not vote.
Let’s assume we can convince 50% of the non-voters to vote against the Republicans. Fifty percent of 1,000,000 is 500,000. And that is more than the difference between the D’s and the R’s in this red state.
With these extra 500,000 votes, this red state will go from a 1,160,000/840,000 R-to-D split to a 1,160,000/1,340,000 split. The D’s have a comfortable margin of victory that cannot be explained by vote switching or a little election fraud. That is the power of managing soft support!
Every state in the USA has the potential to go against the Republicans.
Let me say this again:
Every state in the USA has the potential to go against the Republicans.
As well, I should say:
· The Electoral College can overwhelmingly give Joe Biden his second term as president.
· The House could be split 75/25 in favor of the D’s, even with all the gerrymandering and voter suppression.
· With the 30 or so senators up for re-election, maybe one or two R senators will be re-elected. The rest will go to the D’s.
This huge victory is a much better result than the narrow Biden/Trump split of 2020. Such an upset will yield less post-election violence. The Biden administration gets a big mandate from the American people and a cleared path for progressive legislation. This legislation will affect political psyches a decade from now.
Like all good things, there is a price to be paid for this outcome. It won’t come about by hoping and wishing. Or believing someone else will do the necessary work. Or by engaging in activities unlikely to change voter intentions.
Americans who want this political outcome MUST become proactive beyond the usual ways of democratic participation: complaining, protesting, and voting. They MUST work on political activities that will lead to a decisively decisive victory for the Democrat Party in November.
In the next article of this series, I will list effective political activities. For each American that puts in 100 volunteer hours on this list between now and election day, the electoral balance should shift by 50 votes. Imagine the electoral math if one million Americans answer this call!
The electoral math shows a big Democrat victory is possible!
Published on Medium 2024
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