In 1974, high-ranking Republicans walked into the office of Richard Nixon for his inept handling of the Watergate scandal. They offered him a choice: resign or face impeachment and conviction. These leaders were faced with their own ultimatum: they were seeing a big Republican loss in the midterm elections if Nixon stayed in office. Nixon resigned. The Republicans were not crushed in the midterms. Gerald Ford was a sounder and more capable president.
We could argue that the American political system in 1974 had the ability to self-regulate when politicians went a little too far out of line.
Medium contributors have been regaling in the supposed demise of Donald Trump’s political life. Dancing in the streets. Progressives high-fiving each other. Yep, we finally got this inept politician on a downward swing. We are so happy the system is finally working.
This is a total misunderstanding of the political forces shaping the USA.
Here is my quick summary of historical events leading to today:
1. Donald Trump announced his candidacy to be the Republican nominee for President of the United States. All of us — probably even Mr. Trump — expected him to finish in a respectable fourth place in that race. He would get some extra publicity, which he craved; he would go back to business; he would brag that he tried to change the political system.
2. Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election. His four years should be summarized as “inept.”
3. Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election. Rather than concede, he claimed the electoral process was rigged against him. He could not provide sufficient proof of the rigging.
4. January 6, 2021, could have brought the USA to a constitutional crisis. It needed only a few more dominos to fall to make uncertain the USA’s true source of legitimate authority.
All these events were indeed significant. But this next event is the most important to understand the pulse of the USA.
In November 2021, 30% of eligible voters in Virginia voted for the Republican candidate as governor.
Think about that!!!!!!
These voters could not punish a political party that:
1. elected an inept leader,
2. did not cast him aside when he conclusively proved he was inept,
3. claimed electoral fraud but could not provide proof,
4. incited a political riot, and
5. by words and deeds, indicated that it was drifting towards a one-party state.
In a functioning democracy, enough of these voters should have chastised the above party by temporarily changing their votes or not voting. But in this election, these voters did not take these actions. We should be asking “why?” Here is my hypothesis.
Inside each of us is our version of how the world should be run. And inside of each of us, there is a desire to inflict that version onto everyone else. I call this our “power accumulation instinct.” We all want more power.
Western democracy provides a rulebook for ambitious individuals to exercise that instinct such that they govern at the pleasure of the people. So, our politicians have to look beyond their own demographic circle to earn that right to govern. To get them to this state of thinking, we have elections, free speech, a free press, and a few other features that make western democracy work the way it works. In essence, western democracy has channeled the power accumulation instinct into something more beneficial for society-at-large. But it has not conquered this instinct.
The 30% of Americans who continue to vote for the Republican Party are exercising their power accumulation instinct — in a collective sense. While most of them will never be in the halls of power, they can now see someone like them in those halls. Their instinct is sated. They think: “People like me are making the decisions. This is good. And I don’t have to spend days on the campaign trail and work 12-hour days with people all around me.”
Whether this 30% was part of a master plan or a serendipitous culmination of social forces, it has coalesced itself into a strong political force. It found Mr. Trump as its vessel in the 2016 Republican primaries. Everyone was surprised at the strength of this force.
One trouble with the power accumulation instinct is that it always wants more power. If the 30% is setting 30% of the political agenda today, it would like to have 50% of the agenda tomorrow. If the 30% gets this 50%, it would then want 100%.
Someday, the 30% could be running the country their way. They can see it; they can feel it; they will continue to push for it. And the 30% will seek the politicians to take the USA to that one-party state. They see no need to punish the party that is putting them in charge. There was no drop in support in polling or the ballot box. There was no 1974-like meeting in the president’s office in 2020.
Let me put this in another way. The 30% would find it easier to implement their agenda with a one-party state than in a democracy. The conditions are there for this transition. Mr. Trump has shown that the United States is ripe for a one-party state.
Personally, I’m not counting Mr. Trump out at this point. He is still a political force — and politics is unpredictable.
But if he does lose the Republican nomination, will that 30% somehow dissipate?
Not likely. I believe most of them will find a new home in Mr. Trump’s successor. When this voter base moves behind the successor, it will force the successor to accommodate their wishes of a one-party state. If the successor does not comply, the 30% will find someone else.
So, I’m not seeing the reason for the joy in the supposed political decline of Mr. Trump. In fact, it might be better for the USA to let him win the Republican nomination. With Mr. Trump as the nominee, the Democrats have a greater chance of winning the 2024 presidency than a new Republican face. And if Mr. Trump wins the presidency, we know he wasn’t able to build a capable team to effect a coup last time. The new leader might already have a good plan and team in place.
The USA has lost the ability to self-correct itself politically.
And, for the last decade or so, the tail has been learning how to wag the dog.
Published on Medium 2022
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