I’m a fan of the Foundation Series by Isaac Asimov, which I’ve read three times (maybe four). Mr. Asimov prophesizes that democracy is not forever. It has a shelf life of two to three centuries. Then, society reverts to an oligarchy of some kind. It’s just human nature. And Mr. Asimov told us about this nature in the 1950s.
I’ve had enough political experience to know that my political conjectures are often wrong. Politics is very dynamic — and no one can predict the future very well. Despite this, I still tried to predict the future during my Medium sojourn. I really thought Mr. Trump clumsily holding up the Bible in front of the church was going to damage his campaign enough to evaporate about 5 million soft support voters for the Republican Party. I was wrong. I also predicted that Mr. Trump would not leave the White House voluntarily. I was wrong.
So in all humbleness, I offer my predictions for the short-term history of the USA. I would like to hope that the USA bumbles along with its current democratic condition. But this situation is like a water molecule in a boiling pot of water. It could stay liquid, or it could go gaseous. Who knows? Big change is very possible. If the burner is turned down, the water will still be hot for some time.
Here is my prediction. The Republican Party will take over most government functioning in the USA after 2025. But too many Americans will not like this rule, so there will be lots of civil unrest. The Republicans will try to quell this unrest, which will fuel more unrest.
Unlike the usual doom posters, I don’t see a full-scale civil war or roving bands of anarchists stealing resources from other roving bands of anarchists. But there will be many small disruptions to our economy and lifestyle as militias battle for some kind of control. Most of us will learn to keep our heads low. We will survive. The economy will continue to chug along, giving us jobs to sustain us. But most of us should forget about the American dream in these times.
The Republicans will be inept in governance. In about 10 years, they will no longer have the support of a significant minority of Americans. Their time on the political stage will come to a close.
So, what happens after that?
I recently read a book called “Open Democracy.” Its author, Helene Landemore, is a prominent political scientist. She has compiled a series of popular improvements to western democracy. This book is not an easy read, with too many academic references and a lofty writing style. But it was interesting to know where the leaders of political science are at.
Ms. Landemore acknowledges that significant change will not be coming from any amendments to any constitution. Such reform seems impossible. But there will be another opportunity. Although she does not say outright, she seems to be predicting at least a partial collapse of society.
It is after a collapse that the population may be shocked and ready for a real change. She spends a lot of her book on Iceland, which had its own partial collapse in 2008. She documented the process undertaken to change the Icelandic constitution, using versions of open democracy. There were various mechanisms to ensure the people had a formal voice. And this process was managed by the temporary holders of Icelandic power and guided by the international academics of political science.
I see Ms. Landemore and others in her field jockeying for position to be at the table in the aftermath of the next collapse. They teach at universities; they go to conferences; they write books. After the dust from a collapse has settled, the more influential political scientists will be sitting with the current holders of power. Between them, a new constitution will be drafted and proffered to the people.
And maybe that is the way it should be.
But I have one problem with that approach
Ms. Landemore explicitly stated that political parties are the only possible way to govern. In fact, the whole field of political science is thinking that way. There is very little academic dissent on this matter.
I say that political parties are the disease. Why? Because the active members of political parties are working mostly for the benefit of their parties and themselves, not their voters or society at large. So, any new system with political parties will still have politicians with unaltruistic motivations.
Ms. Landemore may be able to get a few elements of her “open democracy” into a new constitution, but the disease of the political parties will not be dealt with. The great reset will not have much effect.
We will be going through a lot of pain in the collapse. If we leave it to the political scientists, we will more or less end up in the same place. Is that what we really want?
Published on Medium 2022
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