For some reason, gambling never made much sense to me. Or maybe, better said: gambling that hurts the wallet never made much sense to me.
Did I gamble? Yes, but gambling was more social than winning or losing for me. My family liked card games, and often there were coins exchanging hands after an evening of card games. But nothing to cause financial hardship. The coin exchange did add a bit of an edge to the night, especially if I came out ahead.
As I ventured from home, I got some experience with bigger card games. I enjoyed the alcohol and the company of friends, but I stayed on the low-stakes side of the room. I did see some paychecks moving around. That was not my style. I had always set a limit to how much I would lose, and I stuck to it. After a night of small-time gambling concluded, it might be several months before I would see another one. I was not addicted.
Maybe I just had too much math training. Organized gambling seemed like such a futile activity. The odds are always for the house and against me. I could see where that money comes from to pay the casino staff and the electricity bills. There was no sitting in front of a slot machine for this writer.
Lotteries probably have the worst math. But every once in a while, I would buy one ticket — just to see if the gods were in my favor. If you don’t buy the ticket, you will never know, right?
Here’s the strange thing. After I bought the ticket, I became consumed with the winnings. I would spend several hours a day planning what to do with my windfall. And usually the next draw was a few days away, so too much of my waking time was spent on thinking about the lottery. All those other things I used to think about — some good, some bad — got put to the sidelines of my mind.
In southern Alberta, the hospitals have an annual lottery to raise money for hospital equipment. Prizes are a fancy house in Calgary, luxury cars, and Caribbean vacations. It costs $100 for one ticket. So I rationalized the purchase saying it is going for a good cause. But after I bought the ticket, I became distracted with a fancy house in Calgary, a luxury car, and a Caribbean vacation. This lottery takes several months to conclude, so a lot of thinking is going in the wrong place for too long. Good cause or not, I just had to stop buying those hospital tickets.
About twice a year, I attend a hockey game of our local junior hockey team. Part of the game is the 50/50 draw, where half the proceeds go to the winner and the other team to the team’s coffers. To see if the gods are on my side, I put $5 down for a ticket to win about $3000. Again, my thinking gets warped. During the game, about a third of my mental ability is on the game, another third taking in the spectacle and visiting, and another third on winning $3000.
At most, maybe two hours passes between me buying the 50/50 ticket and the announcement of the winner. So it’s not a big loss of fruitless thinking. But if I don’t buy the 50/50 ticket, I have no thoughts about an extra $3000.
I admit that gambling seems to have a little hook in me — after I put some money down. So, I have a little understanding of the addiction of a serious gambler. Thankfully, I haven’t a great need to go down this path.
The Actual Gamble of Politics
In my six years in politics, I never encountered a politician with a serious gambling problem. I have not heard of a politician being outed for this addiction. My hypothesis is that if one is consumed with gambling, politics is unlikely to be a co-activity to this vice. Maybe true gamblers would find it hard to live this kind of dual life. So there might already be a natural filter to keep serious gamblers out of governance.
However, there is a gamble with politics. Let’s just go back to my approach with gambling. I never gambled more than I could afford to lose. In essence, we could say that I was a responsible gambler.
But let’s figure out what it takes to get into politics.
In my opinion, an aspiring politician should spend at least a year as a volunteer in a political party before formally competing for an elected position. In this way, the politician will experience party dynamics and make useful contacts. But this commitment will require quite a few evenings and weekends, time that could be spent with family, career, and recreation. So already, we are seeing the aspiring politician make an investment into politics, kind of like placing a small bet.
Admittedly, some politicians don’t spend that time to survey the scene. They just show themselves to the party officials a few months before the internal election, get the rulebook, and start their campaign. These politicians are sometimes successful — and they didn’t spend much time in surveillance mode. Let’s say this person is placing a smaller bet than the person in the previous paragraph.
Once the aspiring politician makes his or her formal intention to be the party candidate, the candidate needs to assess the time and energy to put into the campaign. The general rule of thumb is: the more time and energy spent, the more likely chance of winning the party election. Time spent on family, career, and recreation needs to be reduced.
The party sometimes has candidates who only put their name on the party ballot — and do little else. While they get their names out there and some time at the podium, they almost always never win. Winning the party election often proves who is going to sacrifice time and energy to win the general election. But that’s the only value to the internal election.
When internal party election is held, there are only two outcomes: win or lose. A loss means all the time and energy investment has been lost. There is no prize for second place. There is no refund.
A win means the winner gets to do this campaign game all over again in the general election. But this time, the party wants to see the winner to get out and campaign — even if the general election is six months away. For sure, the primary income now has to take a big hit to appease the party!
Let me summarize. An aspiring politician needs to spend time and energy to win the internal party election. There is no recompense if he/she loses. If the aspiring politician wins, the person needs to invest major time and energy into the general election. There is no recompense if he/she loses.
During this entry-level political journey, a small incident can derail a well-run campaign. Sometimes that incident is caused by the aspiring candidate or a member of his team. Even the best of humans makes mistakes. Sometimes there are forces outside the campaign that sink the campaign. Even the best campaign manager cannot plan for outside forces — or recover from them. There is so much risk in political life.
Would you not say that “throwing your hat in the ring” to earn an influential position in politics is a gamble?
If so, what kind of people who can afford to make this gamble?
Answer: Wealthy people!
Taking Out Political Gambling with Tiered Democratic Governance
I have an alternative democracy that we can build together. “Tiered Democratic Governance” (TDG) has neighbors voting for one of their own neighbors into political positions. The neighbor with the most votes will represent the neighborhood.
There is no need for campaigning in the TDG. Votes will be cast mostly based on previous interactions between neighbors, not party affiliations. If built properly, TDG voters will not vote for aspiring neighbors who seem to be campaigning. Just let the past decide how to cast a vote, not promises for the future.
A middle-class neighborhood will be represented by someone from the middle class. A working-poor neighborhood will be represented by someone from the working-poor class. The TDG will be bringing people who cannot afford the gamble of today’s politics into the field of governance.
If these middle-class and working-poor representatives are effective in their first-tier positions, they could be elevated to the higher tiers. They need not chase after donors to reach these positions.
There is almost no gamble for anyone to enter politics in the TDG. That really opens up the field, doesn’t it?
Published in Medium 2023
Dave Volek's Pandemic Simulation
