The ultra-conservatives now have their hands on the levers of political power in Alberta. It took about 10 years. Here’s how they did it.
By 2012, the Progressive Conservative Party ruled Alberta for 40 years, winning all provincial elections quite handily. But some conservatives were not happy. They formed the Wild Rose Party and managed to get a handful of seats in the Alberta legislature in the previous election. This party was led by the charismatic Danielle Smith.
In 2012, the Progressive Conservative Party elected an inept leader. The Wild Rose was prominent in exposing that leader’s flaws. Pressure mounted on the Progressive Conservatives to rectify the situation. In 2014, the party forced the resignation of their leader and then elected a more capable leader.
However, the two years of inept leadership widened the splinter in conservative politics. The Wild Rose was pulling members and donations away from the Progressive Conservatives. The fledgling political movement was growing. Media pundits were predicting Ms. Smith as the next premier.
Fast growth usually has challenges. For the Wild Rose, it had a few too many members a little too far on the extreme right who were a little too enthusiastic to espouse their views to the public. The media liked the controversy. The public was uncomfortable with the rhetoric. Danielle Smith tried to control this media perception with some party discipline. She wanted to keep the Wild Rose somewhat on the moderate side. But the political force was too much for her. In 2014, she resigned her leadership. She “crossed the floor’ to join the Progressive Conservatives, under their new capable leader.
The 2015 provincial election had the two conservative parties vying for conservative votes. With these two parties evenly divided, the Westminster electoral rules used in Alberta gave the New Democratic Party (Canada’s socialists) a majority government. The New Democrats did not offer anything new to the 2015 election, but they had the advantage of the conservative vote splitting into two. Canada’s most redneck province was being run by socialists! Go figure.
During the term of the New Democrats, the Progressive Conservative Party and the Wild Rose Party managed to unite into one party. It called itself the “United Conservative Party.” The union found another capable leader. It won the election in 2019. Alberta was back in conservative hands.
COVID-19 brought back the divisions of the new conservative party. The moderates were in agreement with some interventions to bring the pandemic under control. The extremes wanted no such interventions. The new leader tried to balance the two groups and ended up pleasing no one. Eventually, the party forced him to resign.
Danielle Smith changed “conservative sides.” She has recently won the leadership of the United Conservatives, staking her claim on the extreme side of the conservative movement.
Since her victory, she has come out with some rather obtuse statements. She said that the unvaccinated Albertans faced the same kind of persecution as the Jews faced during the Holocaust. Whether this was a public gaffe made in haste or a direct appeal to her political base, it’s safe to say that her political base loved it.
Recently, the United Conservatives passed a bill called the Sovereignty Act. Briefly stated, if the Alberta legislature doesn’t like a law that comes from the Canadian Parliament, Albertans don’t have to obey it. Basically, a province has passed a law that it doesn’t have to obey federal laws.
Most likely, any application of the Sovereignty Act is not going to survive any Supreme Court challenge. So why pass it?
Answer: Bashing Ottawa has often been a good tool for the Alberta conservatives to win elections; Ms. Smith has taken it to a higher level. The Sovereignty Act plays to her political base. They won’t be running her out of the leadership chair anytime soon.
So who is really leading Alberta politics these days? To me, it seems the extreme conservative base is the leader. They have put their nominal leader in the top spot. They have cowed the moderate conservatives into the crazy stuff because the moderate’s alternative is to let the New Democrats run the province again.
Let me say this in a different way: the moderate conservatives are not as influential as they used to be. Public policy in Alberta will now be leveraged toward what maybe 15% of the population wants. There will be no new social programs. Most likely some social programs will be dismantled, not modified.
As long as the two factions of conservatives stay under one party, I’m predicting a conservative majority when Alberta has its election next spring. Not as big of a majority as conservatives are used to. But a majority nonetheless. Then Ms. Smith will have a mandate! Think about that!
While the extreme right in Alberta has been around for a long time, it has learned how to flex its political muscle. It is using its minority vote to get a majority result. It has shown less regard for normal democratic principles, such as the “rule of law.”
Published in Medium in 2023
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